CITIC Securities: There is a possibility of lower interest rates on existing mortgage loans, but it is expected that more decisions will be made independently by commercial banks

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jul 20, 2023 17:09
CITIC Securities issued a report saying that the interest rates of new personal housing mortgage loans in China continued to decline, and the spread between existing and new loans continued to expand.

CITIC Securities issued a report saying that the interest rates of new personal housing mortgage loans in China continued to decline, and the spread between existing and new loans continued to expand. The central bank stated that it supports and encourages commercial banks to independently negotiate with borrowers to change the contract agreement, or to replace the original stock loans with new loans. Although lower the stock mortgage interest rate will help reduce the debt of residents and stimulate consumption, it also faces the challenges of bank interest rate spreads and the implementation of policies. We believe that the existing mortgage loan interest rate may be lowered, but it is expected that more decisions will be made by commercial banks independently. If the existing mortgage interest rate is adjusted, the design of the plan will be more flexible and precise. The central bank and other departments may adopt certain incentive measures to hedge the negative impact of a decrease in interest income of commercial banks.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด, ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณดโ€“์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถ”์ง„
6๋ถ„ ์ „
์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด, ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณดโ€“์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถ”์ง„
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด, ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณดโ€“์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถ”์ง„
์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด, ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณดโ€“์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถ”์ง„
์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด๋Š” 7์›” ํ™์ฝฉ ์‹ ํ•˜์ด ๋งˆ์ด๋‹ ์„œ๋น„์Šค ์œ ํ•œํšŒ์‚ฌ์™€ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฑด๋ถ€ ์ž๊ธˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์„œ๋น„์Šค ๊ณ„์•ฝ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณด-์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์—์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‹œ์ถ” ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ์ถ” ์žฅ๋น„ ๊ฐ€์šฉ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๊ทœ์ œ ์š”๊ฑด ์™„๋ฃŒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ, ์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณด์™€ ์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ์ „์—ญ์—์„œ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 4๋Œ€์˜ ๋‹ค์ด์•„๋ชฌ๋“œ ์‹œ์ถ” ์žฅ๋น„๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์–‘์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ž ์žฌ์  ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜๊ฐœ์›”์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ์ด๋ฒˆ ์บ ํŽ˜์ธ์€ ์ง€๋ฐ˜๊ณตํ•™ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ, ์ตœ์ข… ์ง€ํ•˜ ๋ฐ ๋…ธ์ฒœ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์„ค๊ณ„, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณด์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ 2,900๋งŒ ํ†ค JORC(2012) ๊ด‘๋ฌผ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ ์ถ”์ •์น˜(ํ’ˆ์œ„ 1.1% CuEq) ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ง€์›ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์‹œ์ถ”๋Š” ๊ทœ์ œ ์š”๊ฑด์ด ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜๊ณ  ์–‘์ธก์ด ์ตœ์ข… ์‹œ์ถ”๊ณต ์œ„์น˜์™€ ๊นŠ์ด์— ํ•ฉ์˜ํ•œ ํ›„ ์‹œ์ž‘๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด๋Š” ์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ฝ”์–ด๋ฅผ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋‚˜๋ฏธ๋น„์•„์—์„œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ธ๋ ฅ ์ฑ„์šฉ๋„ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์‹œ์ถ” ์ค€๋น„์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜, ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นธ ํŒŒ์ด์˜ค๋‹ˆ์–ด์™€ ์‹ ํ•˜์ด๋Š” ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณด-์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ตœ์ข… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์„ค๊ณ„์™€ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ํ”Œ๋žœํŠธ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ ๋…ผ์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ์ตœ์ข… ๊ณ„์•ฝ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฏธ์ดํ–‰ ์„ ํ–‰ ์กฐ๊ฑด๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ํ–‰์ • ์ ˆ์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•ด๋‹น ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜๋ฉด ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธ๋กœ ์˜น๊ณฐ๋ณด-์˜จ๊ฒŒ์•„๋งˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๊ณ„ํš ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ”์ง€๋งŒ, ์‹œ์ถ”๋Š” ์•„์ง ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋‚˜ ๊ฑด์„ค ๊ฒฐ์ •๋„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ณ„ํš๋œ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์„ค๊ณ„, ํ”Œ๋žœํŠธ ๋ฒ”์œ„ ๋ฐ ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ฒดํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ง€๋ฐ˜๊ณตํ•™ ๋ฐ ์ž์› ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.
6๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ถ€์ง„์ด ์ด์ค‘ ์••๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„๋Š” ์นจ์ฒด๋œ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์€ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.47%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋Š” ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1.14%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์ด ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ(8์›” 21์ผ~8์›” 27์ผ) ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ....
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
CITIC Securities: There is a possibility of lower interest rates on existing mortgage loans, but it is expected that more decisions will be made independently by commercial banks - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)