China's June Official Manufacturing PMI Contradicts Caixin PMI

The global copper concentrate market is facing increasingly structural tightness as smelting capacity expands faster than the availability of concentrates for third-party processors, according to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco).​ In its newly released Concentrate Market and Smelter Industry Report 2026, Cochilco said declining ore grades, project delays and operational disruptions have constrained mine-side concentrate supply, while new smelting capacity has continued to expand rapidly, particularly in China and Indonesia.​ The imbalance has pushed spot treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, to near-zero and in some cases negative levels during 2025 and 2026. Cochilco said the pressure is not purely cyclical, noting that part of future mine production is expected to be processed at integrated facilities in producing countries rather than sold into the merchant concentrate market.​ As a result, concentrate availability for independent smelters could remain tight even if global mine supply improves toward 2028.​ The report estimates that identified projects could add around 8.2 million mt/year of fine-copper-equivalent smelting capacity globally by 2041, with most of the growth concentrated in Asia. China and India are expected to account for nearly half of the planned additions, further intensifying competition for feedstock.​ Cochilco also highlighted Chile’s position in the market. The country accounted for around 23% of global copper concentrate production in 2025 and has approximately 5.44 million mt/year of concentrate treatment capacity, the largest in Latin America. However, Chilean smelters currently operate at only around 60% of installed capacity.​ The report reinforces the view that pressure on the global concentrate market could persist even if mine supply recovers. Continued smelting expansion without equivalent growth in freely traded concentrate supply is likely to keep TC/RCs under pressure and strengthen miners’ negotiating position. For smelters, profitability may increasingly depend on higher utilisation rates, better operational efficiency and additional revenues from sulfuric acid, energy and associated-metal recovery rather than TC/RC income alone.