Key Influencing Factor For Alumina Prices Has Shifted From Supply Side To Whether Massive Idled Aluminum Capacity In Yunnan Will Be Brought Back On Stream

SHANGHAI, Jun 19 (SMM) – The key factor for determining whether alumina prices could stabilise has shifted from supply side to demand side. Under optimistic scenario (hydropower supply is sufficient to support 1.1 million mt of aluminium capacity to be brought back online), alumina demand would grow 2.12 million mt. After counting in regular stocking by aluminium smelters, alumina demand would add 2.5 million mt, which could drive alumina prices to bottom out. However, if aluminium production resumptions miss expectations, alumina prices would still be weighed down by supply overhang, with downside room estimated at 30-50 yuan/mt.

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