Commerzbank Sees Higher Oil Prices, Citing Significantly Tightening Market  

According to the SMM survey, the large-caliber inventory of SMM Ningbo HRC stood at 332,500 mt this week (as of January 21), up 6,000 mt WoW.Futures prices declined first and then rose this week, while spot prices fell by 10 yuan/mt from last Friday, with trading performance ranging from moderate to weak during the week. As of the afternoon close on January 23, the most-traded HRC 2605 futures contract closed at 3,305 yuan/mt.

China's total steel exports in December increased by 13.24% MoM and 16.18% YoY. The reasons for such a significant increase were twofold. On one hand, following the announcement No. 79 dated December 9, 2025, by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, which decided to adjust the "Catalog of Goods Subject to Export License Management (2025)" and implement export license management for certain steel products effective January 1, 2026, concerns about subsequent export uncertainties, particularly regarding the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms, intensified. This prompted a large number of traders to rush shipments collectively, aiming to get goods out before the year-end, leading to another surge in total volume. Furthermore, according to subsequent SMM tracking, cargo congestion occurred at multiple ports due to the rush to meet shipping schedules, and this issue has not yet been fully resolved. On the other hand, the concerted effort by most steel mills to meet annual export targets by year-end also played a key role. According to SMM production schedule data, exports of sheets & plates and long products from steel mills in December continued to grow compared to November. Simultaneously, based on SMM export order data, export orders from November to December increased by 15% compared to those from October to November, perfectly aligning with the MoM rise in total overseas exports.

According to SMM data on Dec 12, European APT CIF (Rotterdam) averaged $850/mtu, up $50 weekly, while ferrotungsten rose to $104.5/kg W. Following China’s price surge, severe material shortages and pre‑Christmas production halts have nearly stalled European trading. Traders expect APT quotes to surpass $1,000/mtu, already accepted by some buyers. In China, depleted mining quotas and output cuts pushed domestic APT to 555,000 yuan/ton. Export controls and lengthy approvals are limiting outbound flows, tightening domestic supply. With Europe’s structural shortage and strong demand unresolved, prices are likely to continue climbing.

In November, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, declined 769,000 tons MoM, a decrease of 0.7% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to November totaled 1.139202 billion tons, up 1.4% YoY.

SHANGHAI, Jun 5 (SMM) – Some coking plants raised production after their inventories declined, driving up the average capacity utilisation rate up from 77% to 77.5% last week.

How will Russia-Ukraine conflict impact commodity trends? Southwest Securities issued an overseas market research report, saying that under the neutral scenario, the market will react similarly to the Crimea crisis in 2014, but the actual situation may be more severe.

CICC believes that "carbon neutrality" has been fully priced in and the risk premium from the Russia-Ukraine tension has fallen. However, the more persistent "supply shock" is likely to continue and become the main logic for pricing.

In the context of tight overseas energy supply, LME lead inventories have remained low. Tight supply and rising costs will support the upward trend of LME lead prices, which are expected to move between $2,285-2,395/mt this week.

Last week, due to the pandemic-related transportation restriction in Tangshan and Shandong, the purchasing demand of steel mills reduced, which further caused the drop in iron ore prices. Areas closely following the prices of foreign iron ores saw reduction of 80-100 yuan/mt, such as Shandong, Anhui and south Hebei. The prices in less affected areas increased slightly.

The average monthly price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 422,215 yuan/mt in February, up 28% month on month. The downstream is expected to bear higher costs in March, containing the purchasing demand.