HRC Prices Extend Rally, Market Is Anticipating Economic Stimulus From Chinese Government

Today, the DCE iron ore futures consolidated and rose today. The most-traded contract, I2701, closed at 716 yuan/mt, up 1.27% from the previous trading day. Spot prices at Qingdao port rose by 6-10 yuan/mt, with traders actively selling while steel mills adopted a wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in limited overall spot trading volume.

Today, HRC futures prices strengthened significantly, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,340, up 1.49% intraday. In the spot market, prices increased by 30-50 yuan/mt overall, while intraday transactions were average; as futures rallied too fast, most traders adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and downstream buyers showed relatively low acceptance of high prices. On the fundamentals side, from the end of August to September, maintenance schedules for hot rolling have increased notably. This week, the impact from maintenance for hot rolling is expected to continue increasing, with production edging down. On the demand side, downstream buyers' willingness for concentrated purchases was not high, with most still in off-season sentiment, making it difficult to see significant improvement; in the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand persists. However, on the cost side, with growth in hot metal, coupled with supply tightening due to Mongolian and Shanxi coal, and the expected first-round increase of coke, coking coal and coke led the gains, boosting market sentiment and driving finished steel prices higher. In summary, short-term HRC prices are expected to follow costs and hold up well.