Commodity Price Bubble Finally Burst, but Metals Demand Will Surge

Global chrome ore departures from major export ports totaled 624,900 mt in the week ended September 18, up 34.75% week-on-week, according to SMM's latest data. This marks a second consecutive weekly increase, extending the recovery from mid-September's low and pushing volumes to their highest level since early September's surge. Maputo drove the bulk of the increase, with departures rising to 555,600 mt from 438,700 mt, a 26.65% gain that lifted the port's share of total departures to roughly 89%. The continued build in Maputo's volumes reinforces its position as the dominant corridor through the recent stretch of volatility, with the port now accounting for the vast majority of active shipments for a third straight week. Mersin also posted a solid gain, rising to 69,300 mt from 25,200 mt, more than doubling its prior week's total. Richards Bay and Beira both recorded no departures for the week, extending their inactivity from the prior week and underscoring the increasingly narrow, Maputo-concentrated nature of regional export flows in recent weeks. With two of the four tracked ports now dormant for consecutive weeks, the latest data points to a continued reliance on Maputo as the primary conduit for seaborne chrome ore out of the region.

South African investor FS Mining has broken ground on a US$500 million chrome project in the Insiza district of Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe, with the development set to include a smelter, dedicated power generation, and a large-scale beneficiation operation. FS Mining describes itself as a black-owned chrome mining and processing company with operations spanning multiple continents. The investment will be implemented in phases, with the company targeting a 16.5 MW smelter in the first phase alongside a 25 MW power plant to support it. The project's inclusion of dedicated power generation reflects a now-familiar pattern among Zimbabwean ferrochrome developers, who have increasingly turned to captive power solutions to work around grid electricity constraints that have historically limited smelting capacity in the region. The Insiza groundbreaking follows FS Mining's recent completion of a roughly US$2.4 million, 22-kilometre road rehabilitation project in the same district, carried out in partnership with Tofee Mining, the Rural Infrastructure Development Agency, and the Insiza Rural District Council, and commissioned by Matabeleland South's Minister of State for Provincial Affairs and Devolution, Albert Nguluvhe. Details on the chrome project's targeted production capacity, construction timeline, and financing structure have not yet been disclosed beyond the phased smelter and power generation figures.

Coherent reported fiscal Q4 2026 Datacenter & Communications revenue of $1.615 billion, up 18.6% QoQ and 58.6% YoY, accounting for approximately 79% of total revenue. The company cited accelerating customer demand as AI datacenter architectures transition from copper to optical connectivity and said it is prioritizing manufacturing capacity expansion. Coherent’s technical materials identify indium phosphide as an important platform for native laser integration and high-bandwidth 400G-per-lane optical systems. SMM views the expansion of AI optical connectivity as supportive of medium-term InP and high-purity indium demand. However, Coherent did not disclose InP product shipments, preventing a quantitative estimate of the corresponding increase in indium consumption.