SMM Forecast for DMC Output in June

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) revised its global steel demand outlook on 12 October, forecasting demand to remain broadly unchanged at 1.722 billion tonnes in 2026, before increasing by 1.7% to 1.752 billion tonnes in 2027. The downgrade largely reflects weaker-than-expected demand in China, where steel demand is projected to contract by 2.0% in 2026 and a further 1.0% in 2027. Outside China, demand is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027. For the chromium market, the subdued global steel outlook suggests that a broad-based recovery in steel-related demand may take longer to materialize, although prospects vary by region. India’s steel demand is forecast to grow by 7.9% in 2026, while demand in the United States is projected to increase by 2.0%. These divergent regional trends provide important context for chrome ore and ferrochrome producers assessing end-market conditions. However, the forecast covers total steel demand rather than stainless steel specifically, so it does not directly quantify future chromium consumption.

South Africa’s chrome ore exports fell 10.75% month-on-month to 2.36 million tonnes in August 2026, while high-carbon ferrochrome exports increased 20.0% to 117,180 tonnes, highlighting diverging trends in the country’s chromium trade. China remained the leading destination for chrome ore, receiving 1.67 million tonnes, or 70.8% of total shipments, despite a 6.09% monthly decline. Ferrochrome exports, meanwhile, were supported by stronger shipments to North America, with Canada receiving 26,373 tonnes and the United States 26,029 tonnes, together accounting for 44.7% of South Africa’s ferrochrome exports.​ The contrasting movements point to softer overseas demand for raw chrome ore alongside a recovery in ferrochrome shipments, particularly to North America. However, the monthly rebound in ferrochrome exports does not yet establish a sustained recovery in domestic smelting, while China’s dominant share of ore exports leaves South African shipments exposed to changes in Chinese purchasing activity.

Published: Oct 16, 2026.