Commodity Market Is Facing Macro Headwinds, Rebar Prices Still Under Downside Risks

[Brazil] Higher freight offsets falling export offers as Brazil's flat-product import prices steady Brazil's flat-product import prices were broadly steady this week, as elevated ocean freight effectively offset the decline in export offers from major shipping origins. HRC and CRC import prices steadied at 590 and 700 USD/tonne CFR respectively. Recent geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has pushed up marine fuel costs, while weak Asian demand and softer raw materials prompted Vietnamese mills to cut export offers. On the domestic front, dragged by weak downstream demand, tight credit and rising inventories, Brazil's domestic HRC ex-works prices were flat this week, with no price increase planned for August. In addition, Brazilian slab export trading also slowed this week as major exporters made internal transfers to their own plants in Europe and the United States at offers of 575-585 USD/tonne FOB.

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......