Commodity Market Is Facing Macro Headwinds, Rebar Prices Still Under Downside Risks

[Sufficient Cost and Sentiment Support: GO Silicon Steel Prices May Hold Up Well Next Week] This week, cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot prices fluctuated upward, with overall market trading activity recovering steadily. Market feedback indicated that orders from downstream transformer and power equipment enterprises were being released steadily in recent periods, end-user restocking demand picked up, and purchasing enthusiasm improved notably compared with the previous period, no longer limited to rigid-demand purchases, with small and medium-sized restocking orders increasing. Raw material cost support remained solid, and combined with mainstream steel mills raising their June ex-factory base prices, this provided strong underpinning for the spot market, with bullish sentiment continuing to heat up.

[Relatively Firm Support from Raw Material Side; Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Market May Be in the Doldrums Next Week] This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market remained stable, with overall market transactions performing moderately. Market feedback indicated that current market demand was sluggish, with downstream motor enterprises being cautious in procurement, primarily making just-in-time procurement. The relatively firm support from the raw material side provided certain support for spot silicon steel prices, and traders mainly sold at par prices.

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), US domestic raw steel production reached 1.872 million net tons for the week ending May 30, 2026, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase and a 0.1% week-on-week rise. The capability utilization rate stood at 81.1%, up from 76.6% in the same period last year and slightly above the 81.0% recorded in the previous week. Adjusted year-to-date production through May 30, 2026, totaled 38.925 million net tons with an average capability utilization rate of 78.6%, marking a 6.8% increase from the 36.461 million net tons produced during the same period in 2025. Geographically, the Southern district led production with 848,000 net tons, followed by the Great Lakes (495,000 net tons) and the Midwest (321,000 net tons). The market impact indicates that the sustained growth in US steel output and robust utilization rates reflect a resilient domestic manufacturing sector; supported by localized demand and protective trade measures, North American mills continue to maintain steady supply levels despite broader global market stagnation.