SMM Comment: Oil Falls as Remarks by Russian Minister Contradicts Bullish Signal from Saudi Arabia, SHFE and LME Base Metals Outperform Ferrous Metals, Market Bets on US Rate Cut in September

SHANGHAI, May 26 (SMM) - Crude oil:  As of CST 11:35 today, WTI oil fell 0.13%, and Brent oil fell 0.33%. There is still no agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury's cash balance has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, concerns about debt defaults have intensified. In addition, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said he does not expect any new decision to cut production at the group meeting scheduled for June 4, contradicting the previous signal from Saudi Arabia.  　

US dollar: The U.S. dollar fell in intraday trading today. As of CST 11:35, the U.S. dollar index was at 104.11, down 0.1%. On May 25 local time, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy said that there are still unresolved issues in the negotiations between the two parties in the United States to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, and the outcome will not satisfy everyone. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was revised at an annual rate of 1.3%, slightly exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 1.1%, but still significantly lower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter. In addition, the core PCE price index in Q1 points to stubbornly high inflation.

In terms of interest rates, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 51.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in June, and expects a rate cut as early as September.

Metals market: 

As of the mid-day close, SHFE base metals rose across the board: aluminum rose 1.76%; copper rose 1.19%, tin and nickel rose 1.1% and 1.04%, respectively; lead and zinc rose 0.13% and 0.5% respectively.

Ferrous metals prices mostly went up, with rebar up 0.52%, iron ore up 0.59%, HRC up 0.71%, stainless steel up 0.89%. However, coking coal fell 2.91%, and coke fell 3.1%.

LME base metals also mostly closed with gains, with zinc up 1.54%, copper up 0.8%.  Only tin and lead fell 0.08% and 0.19% respectively.

In terms of precious metals, as of CST 11:35, COMEX gold rose 0.16%, and COMEX silver rose 0.24%.

More popular news

China To Actively Expand Domestic Effective Demand And Boost New Energy Vehicle Sales, National Development And Reform Commission Says        

Goldman Sachs, Barclays warn: Fed will not cut interest rates this year

Balance of M2, M1 and M0 All Rise, China’s Central Bank Says

China April Lithium Carbonate Import Volumes And Prices Both Crashed From March, Despite A Surge From A Year Ago

SMM Comment: SHFE and LME Base Metals Mostly Fall, Oil Rise on Supply Jitters after Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Warns He Would Make Short Sellers Suffer, Dollar Falls on US Debt Ceiling Issue

Dollar, Oil, Gold, Base Metals, Ferrous Metals All Go Down, EIA Cuts Oil Price Forecast

EIA Cuts Brent and WTI Oil Price Forecasts for 2023 as Recession Fears, Inflation and Banking Crisis Overshadow OPEC's Production Cuts

UN and IMF Raise Forecasts for China GDP, Regulators Promise Measures to Boost Growth

Asian Buyers Snap up Cheaper Russian Oil, Putting Oil-Producing Countries in the Middle East and West Africa under Huge Pressure

Chinese Lithium Carbonate Smelters Have Smaller Appetite for Overseas Spodumene Concentrate, April Customs Data Shows

Lithium Carbonate Price Rally Was Not Driven By Robust Demand Recovery

Plummeting Global Demand Sends LME Copper Contango To 20-Year High

SMM Morning Comments (May 23): Base Metals Closed Mostly with Losses on US Macro Headwinds

India to become Europe’s top supplier of refined oil products after massive purchases of Russian oil

Goldman Sachs: China will be the only major economy with positive growth this year, bullish bets on new energy vehicles and biotechnology in the long run

CITI Research Lowers Price Forecast for Nickel, Aluminium and Zinc in 2023-2024 But Bets on Higher Copper Prices

Goldman Sachs Cuts Copper Price Forecast Amid Slowing Western Manufacturing, But Bank Of America Bets On Higher Copper Prices, Citing A Surge In Demand From China