SMM HRC Market Comment and Forecast

India has ordered 112 captive coal-fired power plants with capacity of at least 50 MW to operate at maximum capacity from October 1 through December 31, as the government prepares for an expected increase in electricity demand. The September 25 directive, issued by the federal power ministry under emergency provisions of the Electricity Act, covers captive plants primarily serving aluminium smelters, steel mills, cement plants and oil refineries, including facilities operated by Vedanta, Tata Steel, Hindalco, JSW Steel and others. Generators have also been instructed to sell surplus electricity through power exchanges and submit weekly reports covering generation, captive consumption, available capacity and coal stocks. The measure comes as nearly 40% of India’s coal-fired plants are operating with critically low fuel inventories, amid stronger power demand linked to hotter-than-usual weather.

Indonesia’s PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) has lifted the force majeure previously declared over coal supply obligations after three subsidiaries — PT Tiwa Abadi (TA), PT Tanur Jaya (TJ) and PT Fajar Sakti Prima (FSP) — received full approval for their revised 2026 RKAB from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on September 23. The approvals allow the three companies to resume preparations for coal mining operations, while Bayan can restart coal transportation and sales. The force majeure had been declared on September 11 after delays in the revised RKAB approvals prevented the subsidiaries from legally continuing production and affected deliveries under their Coal Supply Agreements.

Japan's JFE Steel expects its output to fall by about 600,000 tonnes after heavy rain and Typhoon No. 25 damaged facilities at its East Japan Works in the Chiba area. The company said the impact is likely to be prolonged because the typhoon caused additional damage after August downpours in Chiba. Several facilities were flooded in August; restoration has proceeded with safety first and operations resumed gradually, but blast furnaces have yet to return to normal. Typhoon No. 25 brought further flooding at some facilities there, with repairs under way. JFE said the estimated cut may change with restoration progress and it is still assessing impacts on output and earnings. Some deliveries have been delayed and the company is coordinating with customers to limit supply disruption.