Short-term Nickel Prices Likely to Rise

The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify, with international climate monitoring indicating that this could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Indonesia is already experiencing significant heat and dry conditions, with El Niño expected to peak in September. According to SMM, the current water shortage at IMIP is mainly affecting carbon steel production, while nickel production has not yet been impacted. However, if the dry weather and water shortages persist, further pressure on industrial water supplies could increase the risk of nickel production cuts.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 02 Sep , 2026

In terms of prices, this week marks the first week of the HMA pricing cycle for the first half of September, with the HMA standing at 16,733.33 US dollars per tonne. Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices adjusted across all three grades: • 1.3% Ni: CIF average price at $30/wmt • 1.4% Ni: CIF average price at $52.8/wmt • 1.5% Ni: CIF average price at $59.2/wmt ________________________________________ Indonesia Policy & DSI ICOMEX Update — September 2, 2026 The Indonesian nickel ore market remains in a wait-and-see period, with the market closely monitoring further RKAB approvals and potential quota adjustments. Meanwhile, DSI is advancing the development of ICOMEX, its digital platform for monitoring and regulating mineral and strategic commodity exports. The platform is expected to progressively integrate key export-related data, including contracts, prices, ore grades, HS codes, vessels, destinations and settlement information. The development of ICOMEX is expected to improve export data transparency, regulatory oversight and price monitoring, while providing the government with a more comprehensive view of mineral export flows. Weather conditions across major nickel-producing regions remain generally manageable, although localized heavy rainfall could still cause temporary disruptions to mining and logistics. The market is also waiting for a potential revision to the HPM formula for limonite ore. Any changes to the pricing mechanism, particularly the treatment of associated metals and corrective factors, could affect limonite pricing and HPAL feedstock economics. Overall, the market remains cautious, with RKAB approvals, ICOMEX development, weather conditions and the potential limonite HPM revision being the key factors to watch in the near term.