World Steel Association Releases Global Steel Demand Outlook 2023-2024

This week, HRC prices strengthened compared with the previous week, and overall transactions improved from the previous week. Supply side, the impact from rolling-line maintenance declined WoW this week, and overall HRC production increased. Demand side, apparent demand rose WoW this week. Inventory side, total HRC inventory fell 74,000 mt WoW this week, and mill inventory rose 2,400 mt WoW. Social inventory side, SMM-tracked HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 4.4432 million mt this week, down 76,300 mt WoW (-1.69% WoW) and up 34.48% YoY on a Gregorian calendar basis. By region, except for small inventory buildups in Central China and Northeast China, all other markets were destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke prices showed strong performance this week, boosting HRC cost support. Looking ahead, expectations for the first round of coke price hikes remain, and combined with lingering disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiation news, cost support has strengthened somewhat. From a fundamentals perspective, the impact from HRC maintenance will gradually decrease going forward, and HRC production is expected to continue rebounding; on the demand side, however, downstream demand has yet to recover, and demand remains mainly rigid at a weak level. Next week, HRC inventory is expected to remain in the late-off-season inventory buildup phase, and fundamental pressure remains. HRC prices are expected to follow cost-side fluctuations next week, and the most-traded contract is expected to trade in the 3,230-3,300 range.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, some export prices for hot-rolled coil and other sheets & plates rose $1-2/mt day on day, with HRC transaction prices at $484-487/mt. According to market participants, hot-rolled inquiry sentiment was rather sluggish, while cold galvanized and other products performed slightly better, with some transactions released at low prices.

[SMM Steel] According to market feedback, for end-September shipment, the FOB selling price of DC51D+Z40/40 cold-rolled base galvanizing with specifications of 1.0*1250*C was $550/mt, and the loading port was Bayuquan.