World’s Top Banks Up China's GDP Growth Forecast This Year as First Quarter Report Far Exceed Expectations

SHANGHAI, Apr 24 (SMM) – According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, which beat the expected growth of 4%. This also laid a good foundation for realising the expected goal of economic development for the whole year. 

The good start of China's economic data in the first quarter has filled the market with confidence, and many domestic and foreign institutions have raised China's GDP growth forecast for this year.

According to NBS statistics, the GDP in the first quarter was 28.4997 trillion yuan. Calculated at constant prices, this is a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 2.2% from the fourth quarter last year, which was better than the expected growth of 4%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 1.1575 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year; the added value of the secondary industry was 10.7947 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3%; the tertiary industry reported a gain of 16.5475 trillion yuan, or 5.4%.

JPMorgan raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 to 6.4% from 6%.

Bank of America raised its forecast for China’s GDP growth to 6.3% from 5.5%.

UBS Chief China Economist Wang Tao said in his latest report on April 19 that China's economic rebound in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and raised its GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.7%. "Considering the stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the first quarter driven by consumption and real estate activities, we have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.7%." Wang Tao said that since the beginning of the year, the demand in developed markets has been relatively stable, and China's exports to emerging markets have increased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter, which means that the decline in exports in 2023 may also be smaller than expected.

In addition, Citi raised China's 2023 economic growth forecast to 6.1% from 5.7% previously, saying that the Chinese economy is "on the track of recovery, driven by consumption and services." Citi added that the stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP data pointed to further growth ahead.

Nomura International (Hong Kong) now expects China's GDP to grow by 5.9%, higher than its previous estimate of 5.3%.

Bloomberg Economics expects China's economic growth rate to be 5.8% this year, but said in a new report last Friday that under a more optimistic scenario, China's GDP growth rate could be as high as 6.6%.