JPMorgan Sees Base Metals Prices Falling in Q2 and Sustained Recovery in 2024

Recently, there have been frequent reports of local governments in China attracting foreign investment, and many projects have been signed.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.16% as of 15:17 CST today. Crude oil futures rose slightly today. As of 15:18, WTI oil and Brent oil rose by around 0.2%.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on April 12, 2023

The LME Was Closed On Monday due to the Easter holiday. SHFE 2305 copper contract finished at 68,460 yuan/mt overnight, down 0.45%. Trading volume was 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 163,000 lots. On the macro front, the US employment report released last Friday was mixed, which strengthened the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in the US in May. The US dollar index strengthened overnight, weighing on copper prices.

A number of macro data released last week fell short of expectations, hence the SHFE nickel prices fluctuated wildly.

LME copper prices closed at $9,001/mt last evening, up 0.23%. Trading volume was 14,000 lots and open interest stood at 251,000 lots. SHFE 2305 copper contract finished at 69,460 yuan/mt last evening, down 0.34%. Trading volume was 33,000 lots, and open interest stood at 172,000 lots.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on March 30, 2023

As of the noon close, SHFE base metals prices generally rose.

The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly today, and crude oil futures fell slightly. As of 15:19 CST, the US dollar index fell 0.03%, while WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell about 0.5%.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in December 2022 was 48.4 (the previous reading was 49), which stood below the 50-point mark for two consecutive months, hitting a new low since May 2020.