Steel Prices may Decline in the Short Term

SHANGHAI, Mar 22 (SMM) - Macro front

PBOC injected a net liquidity of 153 billion yuan in the open market.

The head of commodities at Goldman Sachs said that the bank crisis is more of a supply-side shock than a demand-side shock for commodities, especially in the United States.

Iron ore

Yesterday, iron ore futures still fluctuated with some downs, and the most-traded I2305 contract closed at 879 yuan/mt, down 2.22%. Traders were less willing to ship and steel mills mainly purchased as needed, hence the market transactions were modest. Traded price of PB fines in Shandong moved between 900-908 yuan/mt, down 15-20 yuan/mt from the last Friday, and that of PB fines in Tangshan was 913-917 yuan/mt, down 13-25 yuan/mt.

The news of crude steel output cuts spread in the market yesterday, and the pessimistic sentiment has increased. Overlaying the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and overseas macro factors, the iron ore market operated weakly yesterday. Considering the support of high pig iron output, it is expected that short-term iron ore prices are unlikely to fall sharply.

Coal and Coking coal

On March 21, the transaction prices of first-grade metallurgical CQD in Luliang, Shanxi were 2,890 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day.

Coal mines continued to operate normally while the downstream demand was weak, hence shipments weakened. As such, coking coal supply was sufficient and quotations for some coal types were lowered.

On the supply side, the impact of environmental protection and safety inspections has been eliminated, and profits have gradually recovered. As such, coke company has started to increase production and shipments were active, leading to declining coke stocks.
On the demand side, steel mills generally purchased coke on rigid demand.
On the whole, the cost support has weakened in the near future, and thus the bullish sentiment cooled down. Therefore, some coke company have begun to sell in large quantities .

Steel scrap

Yesterday, traded price of steel scrap dipped 20-90 yuan/mt at mainstream steel mills.

Finished steel

Rebar

Yesterday, rebar futures prices fluctuated downside, which affected the market sentiment. The national spot prices fell slightly in the early trading, and the market prices followed suit.

On the supply side, the compressed profits of steel mills weighed on the production. Meanwhile, the inventory of steel mills continued to be digested, and is still expected to decline further. On the demand side, the overall shipments were not good as the trading atmosphere was deserted. But it cannot be ruled out that steel mills will dump their goods, hence the transaction prices fell 10-20 yuan/mt. On the whole, SMM will continue to pay attention to the supply and demand in the later stage. It is expected that the national construction steel prices may decline in the short term.

HRC

Yesterday, the HRC futures prices fell 1.63% to close at 4,273 yuan/mt after rising. In the spot market, transactions in mainstream cities were weak yesterday, and market quotations generally fell.

On the demand side, the terminals were more wait-and-see, and thus the demand weakened. On the supply side, according to the statistics, the impact of maintenance weakened and the supply pressure increased. From the perspective of raw materials, the control of iron ore prices intensified. Amid the increasing Australia coal shipments, the cost support gradually weakened. On the whole, although the overseas macro risks have eased, short-term volume prices will still fluctuate weakly . It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery speed of subsequent demand and the development trend of overseas risks.