Iron Ore Prices to be Affected by the News Front

On September 20, 2026, Zenith Steel Mill released its September 3rd period price adjustment. I. September 2nd Period Price Difference Compensation: 1. Wire rod: 130 2. Rebar: 130 II. September 3rd Period Provisional Prices: 1. Wire rod: 3,700 2. Rebar: 3,350 III. The monthly discount benchmark rate for acceptance bills has been adjusted to 0.48‰ [SMM Steel]

With no futures guidance today, spot prices mostly remained stable. In terms of supply, new maintenance for hot rolling was limited, and overall production continued to increase. Rolling line maintenance next week is expected to decline WoW, leaving hot coil supply pressure relatively loose. On the demand side, with no futures trading today, the spot market was relatively stable, with no significant purchasing demand released, and pre-holiday restocking remained sluggish. From the raw material side, pre-holiday restocking is nearing its end, and short-term hot metal rigid demand remains resilient. The probability of raw material prices breaking downward before the holiday is relatively small, but there may be negative feedback risks after the holiday. Looking ahead, after the September 17 thermal coal supply guarantee news was released, the specific implementation still needs to be observed after November. Next week's market focus will be on the release of pre-holiday restocking demand both domestically and internationally. In summary, the most-traded hot coil contract may have some room for a rebound next week.

Domestic ore prices diverged this week; iron ore concentrate prices in Hebei fell by 10-20 yuan/mt, while prices in Liaoning remained relatively stable. Overall, iron ore concentrate resources were relatively tight, providing some support to local prices. On the demand side, steel mills saw deepening losses and mainly purchased iron ore concentrates as needed, with a relatively strong desire to bargain down prices.