China’s Alumina Import Window Has Remained Closed since January 18

[SMM Flash] Inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China’s major domestic consumption regions decreased by 530 mt MoM from the previous day.

Overnight, the alumina futures 2505 contract fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday high of 2,817 yuan/mt and a low of 2,777 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,790 yuan/mt. In terms of volume, trading volume contracted markedly, down 184,000 lots from the previous day, indicating a cooling in market trading sentiment; open interest increased slightly, suggesting that the tug-of-war between longs and shorts continued, with some funds opting to maintain positions. From a technical perspective, the current price was trading near the short-term moving averages: MA5 (2,801.2) was slightly above the closing price, creating some resistance, while MA10 (2,785.9) and MA30 (2,786.43) were largely flat, providing support below. This indicates that the short-term market was in a consolidation phase within a moving-average convergence zone, with the direction still unclear.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical News in a Tug-of-War; Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Maintain a Fluctuating Upward Trend in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory has continued to build up, the current Middle East geopolitical situation remains a key global focus. If geopolitical conflicts persist, expectations for tightening global aluminum supply are strong, and aluminum prices have relatively strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.