Entering March (3.10-4.10), the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, and the market's expectation of a future rate hike by 50 basis points has risen to 75%. The peak season is set to help recover the domestic economy.

Although the domestic aluminium supply is expected to recover in March, the recovery in the average daily output would be limited. Output cuts in Yunnan and Guizhou, together with the recovery of downstream operations, would prompt a decline in aluminium social inventories. The expected improvement in downstream consumption will support aluminium prices. However, the current high inventory will limit any price gains. As such, SHFE aluminium prices are expected to move between 17,500-19,200 yuan/mt.