PV Market Performed Well during CNY Holiday, Demand Recovery to Result in Falling Inventories

SHANGHAI, Jan 28 (SMM) -

Polysilicon: The operating rates of polysilicon producers remained stable during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, but the inventory kept rising due to the suspension of logistics and the reduction of market transactions. The total inventory of polysilicon enterprises has so far neared 100,000 mt. Nevertheless, thanks to the tough attitudes of leading companies in holding prices firm and the price increases in downstream sectors before the holiday, some polysilicon companies continued to increase their quotations during the holiday. After the holiday, some module enterprises planned to ramp up the production. As such, polysilicon prices are expected to pick up still in the short term.

Silicon wafer: Before the CNY holiday, a top-tier silicon wafer enterprises raised its offers, which prompted some other enterprises to follow suit. Silicon wafer companies generally maintained high operating rates during the CNY holiday on account of low inventories. Therefore, the pressure to delivery was somehow relieved. With the rebound of polysilicon prices as well as the pressure from cost and procurement, the post-holiday prices of silicon wafer are expected to rise slightly.

Solar cells: During the CNY holiday, solar cell companies basically maintained normal production. But the cost pressure from the continuous rise in the raw material prices compelled them to raise their offers as well. Since most enterprises held upbeat outlook for the post-holiday market recovery, it is estimated that the supply and prices of solar cells will both increase in early February. 

Module: Module producers maintained high operating rates during the CNY holiday. In east China, the capacity release of some companies was limited due to labour shortage. Apart from that, many companies will continue to increase their operating rates in February to ensure smooth delivery. The module prices remained basically unchanged due to its high profits amid few transactions during the holiday. However, the post-holiday prices may decline as some bidding companies planned to lower their tender prices. 

EVA film: The production of EVA film extended during the CNY holiday though the sales were suspended. The manufacturers stopped taking orders a week before the holiday and started to resume on January 28. The output of EVA photovoltaic particles in January is expected to be 109,000 mt. According to SMM survey, the total inventory of EVA photovoltaic particles has accumulated to more than 73,000 mt so far. Thankfully, the demand is expected to thrive in February-March. With the resumption of logistics, the film manufacturers also started to resume the operation, and the month-end stocking activity of film manufacturers will help reduce the EVA film inventory. It is expected that the production of EVA photovoltaic particles will still take up a large share in schedules, and thus the supply will be sufficient. As for prices, the cautious attitudes of manufacturers will cause the prices to fluctuate upwards.

Photovoltaic film: The operating rates of photovoltaic film producers as well as its downstream enterprises were low during the CNY holiday. The stagnant trades during holiday will exert huge pressure on film manufacturers after they resume the production. According to SMM survey, the demand for photovoltaic film in February is expected to be 280-295 million square meters. The photovoltaic film prices will thus start to climb after two months of stability.

Photovoltaic glass: The supply of domestic photovoltaic glass was relatively stable during the holiday, while the downstream demand weakened due to multiple factors such as reduced logistics and closed enterprises. Nevertheless, there was still rigid demand for PV glass, in addition to the following restocking demand of module producers after holiday. Generally, glass factories will mainly focus on consuming the inventory that accumulated during the holiday, thus it is expected that the prices of PV glass will be stable in the first week after holiday.