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Macro Roundup (Jan 18)

iconJan 18, 2023 09:30
Source:SMM
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday in choppy trading, weighed down by expectations of a possible policy shift at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that could end its so-called “yield curve control” and be a precursor to adopting a tighter monetary stance.

SHANGHAI, Jan 18 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday in choppy trading, weighed down by expectations of a possible policy shift at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that could end its so-called “yield curve control” and be a precursor to adopting a tighter monetary stance.

The expectations have pushed the yen higher against the dollar over the past few weeks. Since Jan. 6, the yen has surged nearly 5% against the greenback.

Sterling, meanwhile, led gains versus the dollar, hitting a five-week high after data showed the pace of pay growth accelerated again in Britain, closely watched by the Bank of England as it gauges how much higher to raise interest rates.

In afternoon trading, the dollar slid 0.2% against the yen to 128.24 yen.

U.S. stock futures were lower on Tuesday night.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 77 points, or 0.23%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.23% and 0.26%, respectively.

During the regular session Tuesday, the Dow declined about 391 points, or 1.14%. Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled —and dragged on the 30-stock index — after the bank posted an earnings miss. The S&P 500 dipped 0.20%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the only one among the major averages to buck the trend, rising 0.14%.

Those moves follow earnings results from big banks that suggested diverging paths ahead even for names within the same sector. Goldman Sachs’ shares fell more than 6% following a drop in investment banking and asset management revenues. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley gained 5.9%, boosted by better-than-expected wealth management revenue.

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday in choppy trading after China posted weak but expectation-beating annual economic growth data and on hopes that a recent shift in its COVID-19 policy will boost fuel demand.

Brent crude futures settled up $1.46, or 1.7%, to $85.92 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 32 cents, or 0.4%, at $80.18. There was no settlement on Monday because of a U.S. public holiday for Martin Luther King Day.

China’s gross domestic product expanded 3% in 2022, missing the official target of “around 5.5%” and marking the second-worst performance since 1976. But the data still beat analysts’ forecasts after China rolled back its zero-COVID policy in December.

Gold prices on Tuesday fell from a more than eight-month peak hit in the previous session on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would adopt a less aggressive approach to rate hikes going forward.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,904.87 per ounce after hitting its highest since the end of April on Monday. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6% at $1,909.9.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2%. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for other currency holders.

European markets were muted on Tuesday, with concerns about the global economy high on the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 nonetheless climbed from earlier loss to close 0.3% higher provisionally, with mining stocks leading gains, up 1%. It is the fifth straight session of gains for the index, which is up more than 6% in the year to date.

Macro

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