SMM Research on Chinese New Year Holiday Arrangements of Companies in the PV Industry and their Production Scheduling in January 2023

SHANGHAI, Jan 9 (SMM) - Industrial silicon: Industrial silicon companies, except for those with maintenance plans, will maintain normal production during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. Some polysilicon companies have placed some silicon metal powder orders. Aluminium alloy and silicone producers have basically completed their pre-holiday restocking. The downstream companies bought raw materials rationally amid the sufficient industrial silicon supply in stages and the falling prices.

Polysilicon: Mainstream polysilicon enterprises have no plans to suspend their production during the CNY holiday, but some will carry out routine maintenance in January 2023. Chinese polysilicon output will climb to more than 100,000 mt in January, which is contributed by the commissioning of new capacities and the producers' production ramp-up. Accordingly, the polysilicon inventory in China will reach about 100,000 mt by the end of the month.

Silicon wafers: According to SMM survey, mainstream silicon wafer companies will not suspend their production during the CNY holiday, and they will maintain the blast furnace operation in shifts. Silicon wafer companies are optimistic about the market in 2023 due to the production ramp-up of the module and solar cell enterprises, and they intend to cut their output. In January 2023, Chinese silicon wafer output is expected to reach about 32GW, up 18.5% MoM.

Solar cells: Leading solar cell manufacturers will not take the CNY holiday this year, while some second and third-tier companies have production suspension plans. With the increase in the operating rates of module companies and the recovery of market confidence, solar cell companies are more active in production. A first-tier company A which originally planned to undergo maintenance during the CNY holiday postponed the plan, and it will maintain the normal production during the holiday. In the future, some companies will continue to increase their operating rates.

Modules: Many module companies cancelled their CNY holiday amid the bullish outlook on the market and the smaller inventory pressure, hence the operating rates have grown. SMM predicts that the Chinese module output will reach about 28GW in January 2023, which is about 12% higher than the originally designed output.

Film: The overall film demand gains no palpable momentum approaching the CNY holiday, but it is expected that there will be a demand rebound of about 20% after the holiday. During the CNY holiday, some companies may face a shortage of workers and insufficient orders, hence they raised their operating rates before the holiday and restocked raw materials beforehand. In terms of raw materials, the companies will maintain full production during the CNY holiday. SMM presumes that the photovoltaic grade EVA output will be around 105,000 mt in January 2023.