SHANGHAI, Nov 23 (SMM) - Recently, as the terminal demand has weakened, the market players are close watching the industrial chain for potential production curtailment! The terminal fields of ternary cathode materials include new energy vehicles (NEVs), electronics and e-bike markets. The electronics and e-bike markets have remained muted since entering the second half of 2022, and rising raw material prices have further weighed on the terminal demand. The NEV market has recorded constant growth in terms of sales since this July, but fell MoM in October for the first time in the second half.
According to SMM survey, the weakening terminal demand has reduced the output of material enterprises to varying degrees. Based on comprehensive research and forecasts, the output of ternary cathode materials in November is expected to fall 4% month-on-month and grow 58% year-on-year. The output is likely to fall by another 9% MoM in December, and climb 29% YoY.
Specifically, the output of 5-series NMC cathode materials is expected to fall 12% MoM in November, the highest among 5, 6 and 8-series NMC cathode materials. The output of 5-series is likely to extend the MoM fall into December with a reduction of 6%, while that of 6 and 8-series is forecast to both drop 11%.
Compared with the same period in 2021, the output of NMC 333 and NCA is low but stable in amount. The proportion of 8-series has increased from 39% in November last year to 49% in November this year, and 6-series from 18% to 26%. The proportion of 5-series, however, has fallen from 40% to 22% as its market share has been grabbed by LFP, 6 and 8-series materials, and the process is still on.