Macro Roundup (Nov 18)

SHANGHAI, Nov 18 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar rose on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields increased and investors eyed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, while the British pound fell as investors were left unimpressed by the UK government’s latest budget.

The greenback rebounded a little after falling in recent weeks as inflation data and Fed policymakers’ remarks had fuelled bets that the U.S. central bank could soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes.

But at an event on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard showed a graphic suggesting that even dovish assumptions would require the central bank’s policy rate to rise to at least around 5%, while stricter assumptions suggest it would be above 7%. The federal funds rate is currently in the 3.75%-4.00% range after a spate of aggressive hikes.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked lower Thursday night as investors continued evaluating earnings reports and tougher language from Federal Reserve speakers.

Futures connected to the 30-stock index inched down 54 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500′s futures traded near flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.1%.

Thursday brought another day of drops for the major indexes. The S&P 500 shed 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched downward by 0.02%.

Yields, meanwhile, jumped in tandem, with the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rising to 4.45%. That move alarmed investors who are worried that rising rates could trigger a recession.

Oil prices fell more than 3% on Thursday, with demand squeezed by mounting COVID-19 cases in China and fears of more aggressive hikes in U.S. interest rates.

Brent crude fell $2.81 to settle at $90.05 a barrel, down 3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $3.54, or 4.1%, to settle at $82.05 per barrel.

Gold prices retreated 1% on Thursday as the dollar bounced, while recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalled continuing policy tightening to tame inflation.

Spot gold ended down 0.1% to $1,759.40 per ounce, after falling to $1,753.6 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.7% to $1,762.80.

Gold hit a three-month peak of $1,786.35 per ounce on Tuesday on fears of escalation of the Ukraine crisis, but prices have since eased as tensions ebbed.

The Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed down 0.5 after fluctuating between marginal gains and losses in early trade.