SMM Review and Analysis of China Aluminium Extrusion Import and Export in the First Three Quarters of 2022

SHANGHAI, Oct 27 (SMM) - The import volume of aluminium extrusion from January to September 2022 was 26,000 mt, an increase of 12.4% YoY. The import volume of aluminium extrusion may record growth this year after six consecutive years of year-on-year decline, mainly due to increased imports from Taiwan this year. Under the background of overcapacity of low-end aluminium extrusion in China and the increasing self-sufficiency rate of high-end aluminium extrusion year by year, the demand for foreign high-end aluminium extrusion is gradually decreasing.

The export volume of aluminium extrusion from January to September 2022 was 707,000 mt, an increase of 2.57% YoY. As many countries have implemented anti-dumping policies on China aluminium extrusion in the past two years, the export volume of aluminium extrusion has fallen sharply, and only slight growth may be recorded this year. Exports have improved slightly this year. Part of the reason is that the energy crisis in Europe has affected the supply of raw materials for overseas processing plants. In addition, since March, domestic aluminium prices have fallen, and the SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio has continued to remain low. Overseas countries, mainly in South-east Asia, have made more profits from importing aluminium extrusion from China and thus increased their purchases. In the second half of the year, the backlog of export orders caused by pandemic control have been digested. Due to US interest rate hike and weaker overseas demand, the SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio rebounded, thus and the export volume of aluminium extrusion showed a downward trend. In this context, it is expected that the export of aluminium extrusion will resume the previous downward trend next year.

Since 2020, many countries, such as the EU and Vietnam, have introduced anti-dumping policies against China aluminium extrusion. More countries, such as Thailand, may take similar measure in the future. The proportion of China’s aluminium extrusion exports to the EU shrank further to 66.7% in the first nine months of this year. The proportion of exports to the UK fell from 4% last year to 2.7% after it imposed anti-dumping deposits this year. Australia’s share fell to 4.5% from 5% last year. After Thailand announced an anti-dumping investigation on China aluminium extrusion, Chinese companies are seizing the time window to deliver orders, which has led to a slight increase in the proportion of exports to Thailand this year. 

The successive release of overseas anti-dumping policies will impact China's aluminium extrusion export structure.