Lithium Price Review and Forecast

Industry chain prices were generally under pressure this week, with supply and demand diverging across segments. The lithium market was hit by expectations of ample future supply, dragging the average battery-grade lithium carbonate price down to 104,400 yuan/mt, a weekly decline of 14.7%. Spot destocking and a stronger basis still provided some support, but salt plant inventories edged higher. Cobalt and nickel demand recovery remained insufficient, with cautious procurement keeping salt prices on a downtrend. Ternary cathode materials and LCO faced dual pressure from falling costs and weak orders. LFP supply and demand were stable, with prices easing alongside raw materials. Artificial graphite found relatively strong cost support, separator inventories were low with tightening supply-demand conditions, and electrolyte prices held steady. Sodium-ion battery orders grew and capacity releases accelerated, but profitability recovery lagged, leaving commercialization still constrained by economics. In the recycling market, black mass prices and procurement coefficients moved lower, strengthening buyer bargaining power. Competition intensified in end-user energy storage project bidding, with Jieyang project candidate quotes concentrated at 0.8–0.82 Yuan/Wh. Going forward, attention should focus on ore-side production resumptions, production schedule fulfillment, and actual restocking; industry chain stabilization still hinges on demand improvement.

The industry chain remained weak this week, with insufficient demand and lower costs jointly weighing on prices. Refined cobalt fell below 250,000 yuan/mt, and smelter quotes may see further downward adjustments. Intermediate product trading stalled, with buyers and sellers staying on the sidelines. The cobalt sulphate market shifted to a buyer-dominated phase, with downstream target prices dropping to 46,000-48,000 yuan/mt, while high inventory costs kept price disagreements unresolved. Cobalt chloride and Co3O4 saw production cuts and destocking, with new purchases insufficient. Cobalt powder quotes fell to 330,000-340,000 yuan/mt, and cemented carbide demand recovered slowly. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, with export orders moderate and domestic demand diverging. Ternary cathode material was dragged down by falling raw material prices and order reductions, with October production schedules expected to remain flat MoM. LCO cost support weakened, end-user restocking was cautious, and prices still had downside. Overall, just-in-time procurement was unlikely to reverse the weakness, and stabilization would still require actual order improvement. In news, September EV and ESS battery sales rose 52% YoY, with new progress in corporate earnings and overseas project construction.

According to Tinci Materials (002709), construction of the electrolyte project in Indonesia is being accelerated. It is expected to enter trial production in December 2026. As the first lithium-ion battery electrolyte project in the park, the project is being advanced by PT Tinci Materials Indonesia, with a planned annual capacity of 20,000 mt of lithium-ion battery electrolyte. It will supplement key material support for the battery industry chain in the park and further enhance Tinci Materials' localized supply capability in Southeast Asia.