SHANGHAI, Aug 2 (SMM) - From June 10 to July 15, SHFE copper continued to fall and recorded a new low of 53,400 yuan/mt since Nov 19, 2020. Recently, SHFE copper rebounded and once rose by more than 2.53% today. The increase narrowed to 1.96% as of the daytime session. As of 18:21, LME copper fell only slightly by 0.23%.
In the spot market, SMM 1# copper average spot price rose to 61,600 yuan/mt, an increase of 2.05% from last Friday.
According to SMM research, Shanghai copper cathode spots were quoted in premiums of 330-410 yuan/mt over August contract today, and the average price premium was 370 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. The standard-quality copper prices stood at 61,450-61,730 yuan/mt today, while the high-quality copper cathode prices stood at 61,470-61,750 yuan/mt. SHFE copper rose to 61,500 yuan/mt overnight and fell to 61,000 yuan/mt after opening today. SHFE copper generally fluctuated in a narrow range around 61,150 yuan/mt.
According to SMM, in terms of fundamentals, the copper prices are expected to further increase amid the sharp decline in inventory. As of August 1, the domestic SMM domestic social inventory of copper cathode stood at 69,400 mt, the lowest level since SMM's records. In addition, the SHFE copper inventory was only 37,000 mt last Friday. The inventory fell mainly because that the import goods failed to flow into the domestic market smoothly and the domestic smelters were still in the maintenance. At the same time, the output of some smelters were affected by the tight supply of blister copper. In terms of consumption, although there are not many bright spots as a whole, the refined copper inventory further declined amid the cost advantage.
On the whole, the copper prices rebounded amid the eased macro negative impact, the continuous decline of the US dollar index and the tight domestic spot supply. Before the interest rate meeting in September and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, copper prices may still further rebound amid the support of fundamentals.