SHFE Tin to Redound on Potential Supply-Demand Imbalance after Losing over 10% in Five Days

SHANGHAI, Jun 24 (SMM) – SHFE tin once fell by more than 6% yesterday, hitting a low since July 2021 at 220,650 yuan/mt, and fell by more than 10% in five trading days. LME tin once fell 5.69%, hitting its lowest level since April 2021 at $27,400/mt.

The average spot price of SMM1# tin was 228,500 yuan/mt yesterday, down 2.97% from the previous day. Fewer smelters made quotations. Downstream purchased on the dips as needed.

According to SMM survey, since last week, 15 domestic tin smelters have announced to stop production for maintenance, who account for more than 90% of the total domestic tin production capacity. However, according to SMM statistics, the social inventory rose 996 mt to 5,665 mt last week, thus tin price fell.

SHFE tin inventory reached 3,806 mt on June 14, which was close to the peak in the past year, but has fallen thereafter, standing at 3,087 mt as of June 22, a drop of nearly 19%. This reflects that the market began to gradually digest the inventory under the condition that the domestic supply was reduced and the import window of tin ingots was still closed.

With the continuous shutdown of domestic smelters for maintenance, the domestic market may re-enter the situation of supply-demand imbalance in the short term. As such, SMM believes that tin prices may gradually bottom out in the near future.