A number of factors have led to a pullback in the new energy vehicle plate, and hot sales of new energy vehicles in China can still expect the new energy vehicle sector to stabilize and rebound in February after the Spring Festival. However, in early March, with a sudden change in the international situation, the new energy vehicle sector followed the market and fell again. At the current time, affected by (1) the decline of subsidies, (2) the price rise of new energy vehicles, (3) the instability of the supply chain and other variables, the market lacks confidence in China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022. Nowadays, the repeated domestic epidemic has caused great disturbance to the production and marketing of new energy vehicles. We always believe that there are plenty of alternative models of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, many products are attractive, strong demand is supported, and hot sales of new energy vehicles in China can still be expected.
The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is high, but the performance of listed companies is high, and the high valuation can be digested. As of 2022-3-31, the new energy vehicle index rose 28.1% in the past year, but the valuation (PE,TTM) dropped by 24.0% to 51.1 times. The valuation dropped significantly, mainly due to the company's profits. At the current time, with the intensive release of the 2021 annual report of the relevant listed companies / the first quarterly report of 2022, the high performance growth has been realized, and the valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is expected to decline further.
The price of new energy vehicles rises again.
In mid-March, Tesla raised the quotation in the Chinese market three times on the 10th, 15th and 17th, respectively, and the prices of some models increased many times. On the evening of the 15th, BYD followed the price hike, announcing that the official guidance prices of its dynasty series and ocean series new energy vehicles range from 3000 yuan to 6000 yuan. After that, many car companies announced price increases for their new energy vehicles, including Xiaopeng Motors announced a price increase of 10100 yuan to 20000 yuan on the 18th, Nahu car announced a price increase of 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan on the 18th, and ideal cars announced a price increase of 11800 yuan on the 23rd. Zero-running cars announced price increases twice on the 18th and 25th.
Tesla, as an industry benchmark, greatly affects the pricing strategy of his peers, leading this round of price increases, under the background of the sharp rise in raw material prices, the major car companies generally follow the price increases.
The domestic epidemic situation has repeatedly disturbed the car market.
Affected by the epidemic, 3max 28 Tesla Shanghai port factory stopped production, the recovery time has yet to be determined, the current delivery cycle of Model 3 is as long as 20-24 weeks. In addition, automobile companies such as SAIC and FAW (Jilin Changchun factory) are also at the core of the storm. Shanghai is also an important gathering place for the production of auto parts, including Bosch, ZF, Amboft and other international suppliers have taken root here, so that the epidemic has spread to the entire automobile supply chain. 4gamma also announced a suspension of vehicle production because of the disruption of the supply chain.
Investment suggestion
With the realization of high performance growth, the situation of high valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has been alleviated, it is suggested that attention should be kept. Among the segments, the lithium industry benefits from the skyrocketing lithium price under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance flexibility of relevant listed companies is very large. China's lithium materials companies are very important and difficult to replace in the global new energy vehicle supply chain. Can enjoy the high growth of domestic and foreign new energy vehicle market, and with the market in-depth interpretation, the market excavates it more and more deeply. Traditional car companies are the valley of value. for many years, the market has almost ignored the traditional fuel car companies to actively transform new energy vehicles, and there are opportunities for value revaluation in the long run. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk hint
The new energy automobile industry is greatly affected by the policy, the economy fluctuates violently, and the competition in the industry intensifies.
The domestic epidemic situation is repeated.
