The market opened low throughout the day, and the gem index led the decline to a new low for the year's close. On the disk, agricultural stocks were pulled up after noon, logistics stocks opened up sharply, and the prefabricated vegetable plate was stronger. In terms of decline, stocks on tracks such as lithium batteries accelerated their decline in the afternoon. On the whole, stocks fell more than rose less, more than 4000 stocks in the two cities fell, nearly 100 shares fell more than 9%, of which nearly 20 shares in the real estate sector fell by the daily limit. Today's turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 963.7 billion, 37.3 billion higher than that of the previous trading day. In terms of plates, planting and forestry, logistics, prefabricated vegetables, aquaculture and other sectors led the increase, while salt lake lithium extraction, car chips, rental and sale rights, digital currency and other sectors led the decline. By the close, the Prev index was down 2.61%, the Shenzhen index was down 3.67%, and the gem index was down 4.2%. Northbound funds sold 5.762 billion net throughout the day, of which Shanghai shares sold 3.029 billion and Shenzhen stocks sold 2.732 billion.
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
China International Capital Corporation believes that the accelerated elimination stage of production capacity, the selection of large leading enterprises and high-expected flexible small and medium-sized aquaculture enterprises with strong financing capacity. First of all, from the law of stock price performance, we review the past four cycles, stock prices are ahead of the upward inflection point of pig prices, and the flexible target with high expectations has the largest increase. Secondly, from the cycle point of view, the current pig price is still at the bottom left, low pig price, high feed costs, high corporate debt accelerate capacity removal, pig price inflection point is expected to arrive in 22H2. Finally, from the perspective of stock price space, capacity removal accelerates to strengthen the logic of stock price rush, and the leading enterprises with capital advantages and small and medium-sized enterprises with high flexibility still have a lot of room to rise.
From the point of view of investment suggestions, the investment opportunities of pig breeding stocks in the capacity removal stage can be carried out from two aspects: 1) the leading farming enterprises with financial advantages and strong certainty; 2) small and medium-sized breeding enterprises with low capital pressure or promoting capital market financing, and there are high expected flexibility of listing.
Citic Construction Investment believes that the market is in a bottoming period from a medium-term perspective, but faces some challenges: the economy has entered an active destocking stage, and the epidemic has disturbed the economy; the rapid rise in US debt interest rates has not yet stabilized. Russia-Ukraine conflict and geopolitical situation are uncertain. At this time, investors should be patient and should not advance rashly, waiting for the opportunity of bottoming out fundamentals, improving the external environment, or strong policy easing. If there is a substantial adjustment in the market, it can also be laid out step by step. The layout direction focuses on early cycle varieties (real estate chain, etc.). If follow-up US debt interest rates stabilize, the domestic broad currency strengthening can consider gradually increasing the allocation for growth.
Open source securities believe that in recent days, many places have gradually relaxed real estate policies, mainly involving targeted relaxation of purchase restrictions, reducing the proportion of down payment, issuing home purchase subsidies, reducing mortgage interest rates, lifting restrictions on sales, and providing financial support for real estate enterprises. The real estate inflection point may gradually approach, which is the excellent layout window period of the real estate industry chain.
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