The people's Government of Yunnan Province recently issued a three-year action plan for the development of the new energy battery industry (2022-2024): strive to achieve an output value of 20 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively by 2022, 2023 and 2024, with an average annual output value of more than double.
The advantage of the new energy battery industry developed in Yunnan Province lies in the rich reserves of lithium ore, phosphate rock and other resources, and abundant green energy of hydropower.
Because of this, the plan proposes that focusing on new energy battery materials, by 2024, the scale of the key materials industry of new energy batteries will grow significantly, and the domestic market share of ferrophosphorus, high nickel, manganese cathode materials and wet diaphragm materials will increase steadily, forming a production capacity of 1 million tons of cathode materials, 500000 tons of anode materials, 1.5 billion square meters of battery separators, 200000 tons of electrolyte and 90, 000 tons of copper foil.
Cathode materials are the key products of Yunnan Province in the future. According to the plan, give full play to the advantages of phosphorus and manganese chemical industry in the province, and take the development of phosphorus and manganese cathode materials as an important measure to promote the fine chemical industry chain, focusing on the development of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese phosphate, lithium manganese phosphate, ternary (nickel, cobalt and manganese) and other cathode materials.
Li conforms to the innovative trend of lithium electricity, manganese-based cathode shows attractiveness.
In 2022, the price of raw materials is high and the cost of lithium electricity is under great pressure. material reform is an important way to reduce the cost of batteries, while cathode materials are the main direction of innovation, and ultra-high nickel and ferromanganese lithium are the trend.
The development plan of Yunnan Province conforms to the trend of lithium electricity innovation, with emphasis on manganese cathode materials such as lithium manganese phosphate and lithium manganese iron phosphate. As a new generation of lithium cathode materials, manganese-based cathode materials not only have the advantages of low cost of iron lithium, but also have the advantages of high energy density and stability, and are expected to become the main upgrading direction of traditional iron lithium and intermediate ternary. Musk has also shown interest in manganese-based cathode batteries.
The revolution in power battery technology is expected to bring more demand for manganese. Data show that in 2020, the demand for high-purity manganese sulfate for ternary batteries is about 22000 tons, and the demand for electrolytic manganese dioxide for lithium manganate materials is about 95000 tons. It is estimated that by 2025, the demand for high-purity manganese sulfate for ternary batteries will exceed 150000 tons, and the demand for electrolytic manganese dioxide for lithium manganate materials will exceed 200000 tons.
At the same time, the growth rate of domestic manganese resources supply side is difficult to catch up with the upstream and downstream pace. Although the total amount of manganese ore resources in China is high, the grade is low and mining is difficult, so the external dependence of manganese ore is high. Citic Securities reported that with the increase in the permeability of new manganese-based cathode materials, the amount of manganese used in lithium batteries will increase by more than 10 times between 2021 and 2035, the structural shortage of manganese raw materials for batteries is easy to occur, and the profit of battery-grade manganese sulfate has increased significantly since 2022.
Based on this, the agency proposes to invest around two main lines: enterprises that take the lead in the development and production of new manganese-based cathode materials, and manganese product manufacturers whose business extends to downstream battery materials. The former includes battery factories such as Ningde Times, Guoxuan High Tech and Tianneng Co., and positive companies such as Pengxin Resources, German Nano, Dangsheng Technology, Baichuan Co., Ltd., Zhongbei New Materials, Tianjin Strand and so on. The latter includes upstream enterprises such as southern manganese industry, Hongxing Development, Xiangtan electrification, three Gorges Water Conservancy and so on.
