Global trade fell 2.8 per cent between February and March this year because of a sharp drop in container shipments from the two countries as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute of World Economics (Kiel Institute for The World Economy).

The most affected is global trade with Russia, where imports fell 9.7 per cent in March from a year earlier, while exports fell 5 per cent, according to the institute. The Kiel Trade Index (Kiel trade Indicator) tracks shipping data from 500 ports in real time and adjusts the total value of imports and exports on a seasonal basis to provide an indicator of trade activity.

In 2017, the Kiel Institute was listed as one of the 50 most influential think tanks in the world, especially in terms of economic policy. Handelsblatt, a German business newspaper, called the institute "Germany's most influential economic think tank", while Le Monde said "the best economists in the world are in Kiel".

"distortions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and western sanctions, as well as a high degree of uncertainty among companies with ties to Russia, are significantly dragging down trade in March," said Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiir trade index.

The agency said container traffic at Russia's three busiest container ports-St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Novorossisk-had halved in the past month. this is due to sanctions imposed on Russia and the withdrawal of many western brands. It added that Odessa, Ukraine's main port in the Black Sea, was "almost cut off from international maritime trade".

In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine also had a "chilling effect" on EU trade, with EU exports falling 5.6 per cent and imports falling 3.4 per cent in March. The impact on the United States was more modest, with exports falling 3.4% and imports falling 0.6%.

The March figure was below 50, indicating that most companies reported a contraction in exports compared with the previous month. The decline in global manufacturing exports is widespread geographically, with 2/3 of the countries surveyed reporting a contraction, according to PMI data.

Trade pressures are likely to increase as the US and the European Union (EU) prepare to impose new sanctions on Russia, the institute said.