SMM Analysis: Demand for Photovoltaic Drove China's Silver Powder Imports up 24% year-on-year in January-February

SHANGHAI, Apr 6(SMM) - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2022, China imported a total of 558 mt of silver powder, an increase of 24% year-on-year, with the main importing countries being Japan, South Korea and the United States. The import volume of non-flake silver powder was 536 mt, an increase of 26.4% on the year (other non-flake silver powder imports were 283 mt, an increase of 60% on the year. The import volume of non-flake silver powder with an average particle size smaller than 3 microns was 253 mt, an increase of 2.4% YoY). The import volume of flake silver powder was 22 mt, a decrease of 6% YoY(other flake silver powder was 14 mt, an increase of 17%. The import volume of flake silver powder with an average particle size smaller than 10 microns was 8 mt, a decrease of 27% YoY).

SMM analysis: According to National Energy Bureau data, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in China in 2021 was 306GW, an increase of 21% year-on-year. The new installed capacity in China in 2021 was 54.88GW, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year. From January to February 2022, domestic PV installed capacity was 10.86GW, an increase of 234.15% year-on-year, with the installed capacity exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the cumulative output of solar energy batteries (photovoltaic cells) from January to February this year was 38.7GW, an increase of 39.4% year-on-year.

According to SMM research, photovoltaic conductive slurry and electronic conductive slurry are the main applications of silver powder, of which about 75% is used in the photovoltaic industry. As the amount of installed photovoltaic drove the demand for photovoltaic cells, which in turn drove the demand for silver paste and silver powder, the import volume of China's non-flake silver powder increased by 26.4% year-on-year in January-February 2022. By types, there are still large technical barriers in the mass production of 0.2-0.3 micron silver powder for photovoltaic solar silver paste in China, which mainly depends on overseas imports. Therefore the imports of non-flake silver powder with average particle size smaller than 3 micron increased by 2.4% year-on-year. However, for other types of silver powders, in addition to the larger domestic demand for silver powders, the price spread between home and abroad also affects the import and export volumes. Because the prices of silver powder are mainly decided by the spot prices of silver, the average spot prices of silver in London in January 2022 were 4,700 yuan/kg and the average spot prices of SMM1# silver in China in January were 4,749 yuan/kg. The price difference in raw material led to a price advantage for international silver powder, combined with increasing demand, resulting in an increase in imports of other non-flake silver powder in January and February. For flake silver powder, the imports of flake silver powder have declined because of the improvement in domestic technology and output, resulting in the increase in supply. However, the import volume of flake silver powder was 22 mt, accounting for only 4% of the total silver powder import volume from January to February this year, down 1.3 mt from last year, so the rise of import volume of silver powder was mainly driven by the increasing demand for photovoltaic.