Last week, the panel material plate rose, while the emerging material plate fell sharply. With the exception of panel materials, the valuation of other sectors (TTM) was adjusted, and the price-to-earnings ratio of semiconductor materials fell below the long-term historical median.
Last week, only the panel material plate rose, with a weekly increase of 3.97%, outperforming the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) by 6.11 percentage points. Emerging materials such as lithium materials, photovoltaic materials and semiconductor materials fell sharply, with weekly declines of 6.32%, 6.27% and 4.39%, respectively, outperforming the benchmark by 4.18 percentage points, 4.13 percentage points and 2.25 percentage points respectively. Last week, the valuation level of panel materials (TTM) was 0.4x to 21.2x, while that of other magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium materials, photovoltaic materials and semiconductor materials (TTM) fell by 0.4x, 1.7x, 5.8x, 3.2x and 2.6x to 37x, 47.3x, 50x, 47.8x and 61.5x, respectively, while the price-to-earnings ratio of semiconductor materials fell below the long-term historical median. In terms of historical quantiles, magnetic, carbon fiber, semiconductor and panel materials last week were at 39.6%, 12.3%, 47% and 0.3% of the long-term valuation, respectively, while lithium and photovoltaic materials were at 53.1% and 60.4% of the long-term valuation.
Praseodymium neodymium price decline stabilized, praseodymium neodymium oxide industry weekly average gross margin fell slightly. The prices of heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium continued to fall, and the prices of gadolinium iron and iron alloys adjusted sharply. Cobalt futures price is stable, spot price is weak adjustment, ferroboron and niobium alloy price is stable, gallium price is new high. The price of sintered NdFeB magnetic blank is reduced.
Praseodymium-neodymium: last week, the praseodymium-neodymium oxide stabilized after a downward adjustment. The national average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 992,000 yuan / ton, down 3.03% from the previous week; the average price of praseodymium-neodymium metal was 1.22 million yuan / ton, down 4.31% from the previous week. Last week, the praseodymium-neodymium oxide market merchants reduced their low-price shipments, the quotations tended to be stable, and the quotations of large factories were slightly higher; the market turnover increased, the actual transaction price stabilized, and the orders of magnetic materials enterprises increased slightly, but the acceptance of high-priced supply was still not high. Wait-and-see mood shows a little game between supply and demand. Last week, the production of separate enterprises and waste enterprises was normal and the output was stable. With the weak adjustment of praseodymium and neodymium prices, the procurement of metal factories slowed down, mainly consuming inventory. The output of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 1290 tons, a decrease of 4.23% compared with the previous week. The inventory of praseodymium-neodymium oxide factory was 3633 tons, 1.94% lower than the previous week. Last week, the intention of replenishment in the lower reaches was insufficient, the actual transaction prices were adjusted low, the enterprise costs fluctuated high, and the industry profits decreased slightly. The average gross profit of the praseodymium-neodymium oxide industry decreased by 1.44% to 6.95 million yuan / ton, and the average gross profit of the praseodymium-neodymium metal industry decreased by 1820 million yuan / ton to-0.03 million yuan / ton.
Heavy rare earths: the price of heavy rare earths continued to decline last week, dysprosium oxide market sentiment is not high, downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, prices are weak, and some merchants' quotations are low and downward; large factory quotations are strong, but downstream manufacturers still have inventory available, inquiry orders are less restocked. The national average price of dysprosium oxide was 2850 yuan / kg, down 3.06% from the previous week. Traders in the terbium oxide market shipped at a small amount at low prices, large factories were not willing to ship at low prices, and a small amount of downstream purchases were made on demand, but the actual transaction was not much. the national average price of terbium oxide was 13820 yuan / kg, down 3.15% from the previous week; the average price of metal terbium was 17950 yuan / kg, down 3.49% from the previous week. Last week, the domestic average price of gadolinium ferroalloy was 576,000 yuan / ton, down 6.34% from the previous week; the domestic average price of gadolinium ferroalloy was 1.38 million yuan / ton, down 4.19% from the previous week.
Other raw materials: LME cobalt futures were flat at $82000 / ton, while the spot price of non-ferrous cobalt fell 0.35% to 569, 000 yuan / ton. The price of ferroboron (18%) was stable, the price of ferroniobium alloy (60murA) rose slightly, and the price of gallium (99.99%) rose 1.98% from the previous week to 2575 yuan / kg.
Sintered NdFeB: last week, the price of NdFeB was lowered, and the national average prices of N35 and H35 were adjusted to 292.5 yuan / kg and 360.5 yuan / kg respectively.
The price of positive cobalt raw materials rebounded, nickel sulfate continued to fall, cobalt sulfate ring ratio rebounded, lithium sources rose steadily, and the price of positive precursors rose. Lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte link is temporarily stable, DMC is down, and the electrolyte price is stable. The price of anode material natural graphite has risen sharply, the diaphragm has remained stable, and the price of some copper foil products has increased.
Cathode materials: last week, the battery-grade electrolytic cobalt at the end of the ternary cathode raw material rebounded 1.07% to 5675 million yuan / ton, the price of nickel sulfate fell 2.02% to 48500 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt sulfate rose 4.37% to 11.95 million yuan / ton. The prices of ternary precursors NCM111, NCM523 and NCM622 rose 3.83%, 3.18% and 3.14% to 1625,000 yuan / ton, 162,000 yuan / ton and 164,000 yuan / ton, respectively. The price of lithium sources remained high, with battery-grade lithium carbonate unchanged at 503,000 yuan / ton, and lithium hydroxide rising 0.41% to 4915,000 yuan / ton. The weekly price changes of ternary cathode materials NCM523 and NCM622 were flat and increased by 0.78%, respectively; the price of precursor iron phosphate cathode was unchanged at 24,000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode was unchanged at 168,000 yuan / ton.
Electrolyte: last week, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was unchanged at 515,000 yuan / ton, while the average ex-factory price of DMC domestic manufacturers fell 6.07% to 5800 yuan / ton. The prices of all types of electrolytes are the same in week-to-month ratio.
Negative materials: the prices of domestic mid-end man-made and natural graphite are 515,000 yuan / ton and 510,000 yuan / ton respectively, which are the same as the previous week and 32.47% higher than the previous week.
Diaphragm: last week, the prices of domestic mainstream diaphragm products remained stable. The weekly output of the diaphragm was 19447 million square meters, a decrease of 0.46% on a weekly basis, and the operating rate of the industry was 65.07%, a decrease of 0.46% on a weekly basis. The inventory of lithium battery diaphragm manufacturers is 4302 million square meters, an increase of 3.54% compared with the previous month.
Battery-grade copper foil: the market demand for lithium copper foil was stable last week, with an average price of 110,000 yuan / ton in the 8 μ m mainstream market, up 0.92% from the previous week; and an average price of 12.2 yuan / ton in the 6 μ m mainstream market, up 2.09% from the previous week.
Last week, 4.5 μ m and 6 μ m lithium models copper foil processing fees increased significantly, 8 μ m copper foil affected by demand, the price of processing fees remained stable.
The price of DRAM downstream of semiconductor materials continued to fall, and the price of flash memory rose steadily. Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia rose 2.11% and 2.71% respectively. For DRAM, downstream DDR3 4Gb (1600MHz) prices fell 2 per cent to $2.739. The prices of NAND Flash 64Gb and 32Gb were up 0.35% and flat respectively from the previous week.
Investment suggestion
It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the opportunities of rare earth permanent magnet plates that are expected to be significantly increased by policy-driven demand growth and whose valuation has entered a reasonable historical range, as well as the release of short-term high valuation risk, the pull of the demand for carbon-carbon matrix composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installation, the increase of market capacity brought about by the demand for lithium-ion materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, and the long-term trend of integrated circuit localization. Progress and opportunities of localization of semiconductor materials.
Risk hint
The risk of price decline, the risk of prosperity change, the risk of policy change.
