Go to the library to reduce copper and aluminum, continue to remove Q2 asymptotic lithium or welcome a round of rigid demand to buy [Agency Review]

Precious metals: the long-term allocation value of precious metals is highlighted under the resonance of inflation, geopolitical conflict and US dollar credit crisis.

1 nominal interest rate: during the week, Powell and other senior Fed officials released hawkish remarks that in order to curb inflation or raise interest rates by 50BP in May, the yield on 10-year Treasuries reached as high as 2.5% during the week, and the market had strong expectations for later tightening policies in the United States. 2 inflation expectations: with regard to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine said that it had encountered "major difficulties" in negotiations with Russia, and the NATO summit decided to increase aid to Ukraine, and the possibility of increased sanctions against Russia could not be ruled out in the follow-up. In addition, Russia began to put pressure on European countries to buy natural gas in rubles, rekindling market geopolitical concerns, and natural gas and crude oil prices soared again within the week. Since the Russia-Ukraine incident in mid-late February, implied inflation expectations have risen from 2.4 per cent to a peak of 2.9 per cent. On the whole, high inflation and US dollar credit overdraft continue to push up the "anti-inflation" and "currency anchor" value of gold, which has become the core factor of gold pricing. The follow-up market will continue to focus on the Fed's interest rate hike-contraction expectations, while stagflation worries cast uncertainty on the global economic situation, gold mining stocks are expected to remain strong.

Basic metals: the epidemic accelerated the domestic depot, and the macro mood gradually stabilized and industrial metals continued to rise.

(1) Copper: 1 on the macro front, Powell and other senior Fed officials released hawkish remarks this week to curb inflation or raise interest rates by 50bp in May, suppressing metal gains by rising the dollar index; and on the supply side, spot processing fees for copper concentrate TC rose from US $67.00 / t to US $74.40 / t in the past two weeks, showing an accelerated rise. Zijin Mining announced that the second phase of Camore Copper Mine was completed and put into production about 4 months ahead of schedule, and the overall annual output of the mine is expected to reach 340000 tons of copper, accelerating the upward trend of TC as a whole, and the reduction of electrolytic copper supply has also accelerated the decline of inventory in the past two weeks. 3 in terms of demand-inventory, the global copper inventory this week is 544900 tons, which is 68800 tons less than last week, of which the domestic social inventory decreased by 46900 tons, the bonded area decreased by 24000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1100 tons. This week, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continued to be slightly weaker than the previous month. Under the epidemic, the procurement of raw materials and the shipment of finished products were blocked, and enterprises reduced the operating rate to cope with potential business risks. Due to the impact of supply logistics and Shandong refinery shutdown, domestic inventories are still accelerating, spot water rises to maintain high levels, copper prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall.

(2) Aluminum: 1 inventory: this week, the three major exchanges to warehouse 5.82 to 1.0133 million tons, of which LME inventory to 37100 tons. In terms of supply, the pace of resumption of electrolytic aluminum production this week is more in line with market expectations, and the overall pace of rapid resumption of production within the month is expected to be basically restored by the end of the month, and the corresponding start-up capacity has gradually rebounded to nearly 40 million tons. 3 demand: affected by the epidemic this week, the restriction of logistics management and control is more obvious, in which the aluminum ingots in the main warehouses in Jiangsu, Wuxi and Shandong Province have dropped sharply, the volume of electrolytic aluminum in and out of the warehouse has moved down significantly, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream is relatively low. the market transaction mood is relatively low. At present, the core contradiction in the realization of aluminum fundamentals revolves around the continuous removal of the social treasury and the post-positioning of the downstream demand affected by the epidemic, and the rate of exchange rate of downstream start-up after the epidemic has subsided remains to be seen. In addition, with the overrise of overseas aluminum prices again this week, the gap between domestic and foreign aluminum prices has widened again, corresponding to the re-prosperity of plate, strip and foil, the core product of aluminum export. Suggested attention: Luoyang Molybdenum, Mingtai Aluminum, Zijin Mining, Shenhuo shares, Jinxin, China Nonferrous Mining, Nanshan Aluminum, Suotong Development, Chinalco, Yunshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum.

Energy metals: the rising trend of cobalt and lithium prices slows down, and downstream car companies are concentrating on price increases; manufacturers of gradual cathode materials in the second quarter may face a new round of rigid demand for lithium salts of raw materials.

(1) Lithium: the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is the same as last week at 517500 yuan / ton, the downstream cost pressure is beginning to show, and the rising trend of lithium salt price slows down. However, the gap between supply and demand can not be made up in the short term, superimposed downstream manufacturers to expand production in April, lithium salt market supply falls short of demand to support lithium prices remain high

(2) Nickel: nickel sulfate fell 1.48% to 50000 yuan / ton this week, while nickel sulfate fell 6900 yuan / ton to 62700 yuan / ton compared with nickel-iron price difference, maintaining a high level. Trading in the nickel sulfate spot market this week is slightly better than last week, but the acceptance of high-priced raw materials by precursor enterprises is lower, the overall purchasing demand downstream is weak, the spot liquidity is poor, and the price of nickel sulfate weakens slightly during the week. If the price of nickel continues to rise, it may affect the downstream production rhythm;

(3) Cobalt: cobalt sulfate rose 0.41% to 123500 yuan / ton this week; MB cobalt price rose 0.32% to $39.00 / lb. Cobalt prices high downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, cobalt prices slow down this week. Under the pressure of plateau material prices, downstream new energy car factories have announced price increases one after another this week, and some car companies have raised prices twice this year. The price pressure of new energy raw materials has been gradually alleviated, and it is necessary to observe the subsequent changes in the consumer side. Suggested attention: Tibet Mining, Huayou Cobalt Industry, Shengtun Mining, Salt Lake shares, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Rongjie shares, Yahua Group, Hanrui Cobalt Industry, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Xiamen Tungsten Xineng, Jinli permanent Magnet.

Risk hints: global economic recovery is less than expected risk, global epidemic development risk exceeding expectations, political risk and so on.