SMM Analysis: The Increasing Imports of Myanmar Tin Ore are Expected to Drive Total Imports up on the Year.

SHANGHAI, Mar 21 (SMM) - Customs data showed that the imports of tin ore and concentrates stood at 39,989 mt in January 2022, an increase of 284.22% year-on-year; imports of tin ore and concentrates stood at 19,755 mt in February, an increase of 95.07% year-on-year. From January to February, imports totalled 59.744mt, soaring 190.94% year on year.

In terms of imports by country, tin ore was mainly imported from Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Bolivia and other countries in January to February. Among them, imports from Myanmar were 51,643 mt. Converted at an average grade of 25%, the amount of metal imported from Myanmar was approximately 12,910 mt. Imports from other countries were approximately 8,101 mt. Converted at an average grade of 50%, the amount of metal imported was approximately 4,050 mt. Adding up the imports from Myanmar and the other countries, the total imports of tin ore from January to February amounted to 16,960 mt if converted at metal. To see through the specific data, tin ore imports from Myanmar increased greatly in January, and the main reason for the increase was related to the recurred pandemic in Myanmar last December, which led to the closure of import and export ports. Since then, the pandemic in Myanmar had stabilised and large stockpiles entered China since the ports opened in January, resulting in an over-expected increase in tin ore imports. In February, the number of imported ore from Myanmar had resumed production, which was currently maintained at a relatively flat level according to data. On the other hand, the change in total imports of other countries from January to February remained stable, with little difference of the total amount of mt in metal content from expected. From the specific import data of the mainstream import countries, the imports remained stable. Because the imported ore of China mainly comes from Myanmar, while imported ore from other countries accounted less, so the small fluctuations had a relatively small impact on the domestic mine. 

Comprehensively, it appears that although there was more imports ore from Myanmar in January, the impact was still within expectations. At present, the overall imports of ore remained relatively stable, but the recurred pandemic in Myanmar as well as the factors causing low mining efficiency still existed. SMM will research on the follow-up situation.