Tesla 4680 battery mass production will enter the "death valley"? Manufacturing technology and equipment are getting in the way.

Self-produced high energy density battery is an important cost reduction strategy for Tesla. According to the original plan, Tesla will start delivering Model Y electric vehicles with 4680 batteries by the end of March this year. However, with this time node approaching, there is a question mark over whether Tesla can mass produce 4680 batteries on a large scale.

Tesla had set a goal of producing 4680 batteries of 100 GWh by 2022 to meet the demand for 1.3 million electric vehicles.

Recently, a number of industry insiders and experts believe that Musk is unlikely to achieve this grand goal in 2022, and the battery manufacturing process is difficult to grasp and the long equipment adjustment process is regarded as an "obstacle in the way".

"he (Musk) is changing the way batteries are made," said Professor Meng Ying (Shirley Meng), a professor at the University of Chicago who worked with Maxwell, a battery technology company acquired by Tesla. "[Tesla] it is really very difficult to produce new batteries at the current speed and scale."

The new battery manufacturing method mentioned by Meng Ying refers to the dry electrode technology, the key manufacturing process of 4680 batteries, which Tesla acquired when she bought Maxwell, which skips traditional manufacturing steps such as adding solvents and gives Tesla the ability to reduce costs by 20 per cent, but it is difficult to achieve uniform dispersion of active materials.

Ms Meng said Mr Musk could experience a "death valley" in the large-scale use of dry electrode manufacturing processes.

In addition, Caspar Rawls (Caspar Rawles), chief data officer of, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, added: "it will take a long time to fine-tune the equipment before starting mass production." Tesla must improve the manufacturing process this year to ensure mass production of 4680 batteries by 2023, he added. "Battery production is difficult, even for experienced suppliers."

Mr Musk has frankly admitted that this [the technology] is a challenge and that factory-related equipment "does not exist" and is "under construction".

Gene Munster (Gene Munster), managing partner of venture capital firm Loup Ventures, also said: "I don't think the increase of 4680 batteries next year will be enough to meet the demand." Munster believes that Tesla will achieve his goal in the long run, but the start will be slow given the past history of producing new models.

Tesla released a message on February 19th to celebrate the launch of the millionth 4680 battery. However, each Model Y needs about 1000 4680 batteries, so 1 million 4680 batteries can only produce about 1000 Model Ys, while Tesla's Texas factory produces well over a thousand vehicles a week.

The large-scale shipment of Tesla's self-made batteries has become a difficult problem, corresponding to the orders that come like snowflakes. It is reported that Tesla's orders surged in several parts of the US last week, with orders up 100 per cent from last week. However, due to the impact of production capacity, the company has a large backlog of orders. , Model Y and Model 3 currently have a five-to six-month delay in different parts of the world.

At present, domestic Tesla has announced another price increase, with high-end Model 3 and Y both up 10, 000 yuan, and the price of the long-lasting version of Model Y in the United States has also been raised by 1000 US dollars to 59990 US dollars.