On Monday, February 28, local time, the German climate ministry introduced new draft legislation to advance the target of 100% renewable energy power generation to 2035, 15 years earlier than the previous target. In order to achieve this goal, the department also proposed a plan for the installation of renewable energy by 2035, which will be voted on by all ministries and commissions. Among them, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic gradually increased from 7GW in 2022 to 20GW in 2028, and then maintained this level until 2035. Based on this calculation, the installed CAGR in Germany will reach 32% from 2021 to 2025.
In the draft, the Ministry of Economic Affairs will increase the power generation capacity of onshore wind and solar facilities by about three times, and offshore wind power capacity will more than double.
Onshore wind power capacity will increase from 3 gigawatts this year to 10 gigawatts in 2027, and solar capacity will increase from 7 gigawatts this year to 20 gigawatts in 2028.
Offshore wind power facilities are also a key part of the plan, and Germany expects its capacity to rise from 30 gigawatts in 2030 to 70 gigawatts in 2045.
According to this agency, it is expected that the development of new energy in all European countries will enter a new accelerated phase, with a compound growth rate of 30% and 35% in the next five years, leading to the growth of global installed capacity.
Changjiang Securities: Germany intends to legislate to accelerate the development of photovoltaic energy and has strong confidence in it.
For the German climate department to put forward a new draft legislation, Changjiang Securities said: 1, the policy continues to upgrade, German photovoltaic acceleration is expected to be further strengthened. In December last year, Germany's new government coalition proposed a similar goal of achieving more than 80 per cent of renewable energy by 2030, when photovoltaics will be installed on a cumulative scale of 200GW. The objectives set in this draft legislation are similar to the above goals in scale, except that they provide clear guidelines for annual installation, thus further strengthening the expectation of high growth in the German photovoltaic market.
2. It is possible to achieve this goal. One of the core reasons for the German government's strong support for new energy may be to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas. Europe relies on Russia for 40% of its natural gas imports, and the proportion of Russian imports has declined in recent years due to geopolitical factors, pushing up electricity prices in Europe. European natural gas is expected to remain relatively tight in 2022, and the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine has further aggravated Europe's concerns about natural gas supply. Therefore, it is urgent to get rid of the dependence on Russian energy. We expect that the development of new energy in all European countries will enter a new accelerated phase. In the next five years, it is expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 30%, 35%, which will lead to the growth of global installed capacity.
3. Under the strong demand, Changjiang Securities continues to be firmly optimistic about the photovoltaic plate, and proposes to lay out the following main lines:
1) integrated enterprises with improved profitability (Longji shares, Jing'ao Technology, Trina Solar, Jingke Energy) and inverters (Sunshine Power, Jinlang Technology, Gu Dewei, Wemai shares, etc.);
2) plastic film (Foster, Haiyou new materials) and silicon materials (Tongwei shares, Daquan Energy, etc.) that maintain high profits due to tight supply and demand;
3) profit short-term bottom medium-term improvement of glass (Fletcher, Xinyi Solar Energy) and tracking bracket (CITIC Bo);
4) other subdivision links, high-quality leading Zhengtai Electric Appliance, Jingsheng Mechatronics, Jiejiawei Chuang, Lin Yang Energy, Zhonglai shares, Aixu shares and so on.
CICC: rising energy prices caused by political conflicts or accelerating the process of replacing traditional energy sources with new energy sources in Europe
China International Capital Corporation said that the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a rise in energy prices or accelerate the process of new energy sources replacing traditional energy sources in the world, especially in Europe. Russia is the second largest natural gas producer in 2020, and more than 30% of Europe's natural gas is supplied by Russia. With the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ICE Dutch TTF natural gas futures, known as the weather vane of European natural gas prices, rose 26.8 per cent from 80.70 euros to 102.5 euros. On the one hand, the rising cost of traditional energy is expected to further highlight the "more economical" attribute of photovoltaic new energy; on the other hand, new energy generation is not dependent on fuel resources to achieve energy self-sufficiency "more secure". The Belgian energy minister said recently: "the EU must accelerate the transformation of green energy. "
Germany plans to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2035, 15 years ahead of schedule. The German Ministry of Climate and Energy has proposed to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy capacity, and officials say the purpose of the amendment is not only to protect the climate, but also to reduce Germany's dependence on energy imports, especially Russia. At present, the new plan has entered the departmental consultation process, and the installation of new energy has been accelerated, especially the target installed capacity of photovoltaic is 200GW, corresponding to the annual average installed 10GW of Germany in the next 15 years, which is double that of 2021, and the market space is huge.
Policy resonates with fundamentals, China International Capital Corporation continues to recommend: 1) rising volume and price inverter links Sunshine Power, Jinlang Technology, Gudwei, and Wemai shares; production capacity expansion, cost for good film growth of the target sea excellent new materials; 2) domestic photovoltaic leader Zhengtai; 3) continued improvement in concentration, high profit next year's component links Trina Solar, Jingke Energy, Jing O Technology, Longji shares.
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