According to foreign media reports, J.D. Power, an automotive industry consultancy, said in a joint forecast on February 25 that the situation in Russia and Ukraine posed a "major risk" to the recovery of global light vehicle sales this year.
Coupled with the fact that higher oil and aluminum prices may also affect consumers' purchases of new cars, the consultants cut their global light vehicle sales forecasts by 400000 to 85.8 million this year.
Jeff Schuster, president of Americas operations and global automotive forecasting, another market consulting firm, said that based on the severity and duration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, global car supply and prices will face more pressure.
On February 24, the situation in Russia and Ukraine caused oil prices to soar above $100 a barrel, exceeding $100 for the first time since 2014. The price of Brent crude (Brent) even hit $105.
Aluminium prices in London rose to record highs as the situation escalated in Russia and Ukraine, while nickel prices soared to their highest level in more than a decade, adding to the serious risk of supply chain shortages already facing the car industry.
The car industry is still grappling with the global shortage of chips that forced it to cut production, although high car prices partly offset the impact of the cuts. Us retail sales of new cars are expected to fall 5.7 per cent to 922100 in February, but the average transaction price will reach $44460, up 18.5 per cent from a year earlier and a new high for the same period.
Thomas King, president of data and analysis at J.D. Power, said: "continued supply chain disruptions, coupled with recent announcements by several manufacturers to stop production, suggest that the lack of total car inventory in March is unlikely to change."
However, global light vehicle sales are expected to grow by 5 per cent in 2022, according to the report.
