[market Analysis]
Affected by the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine today, aluminum on the outer disk rose strongly, especially before the close at noon, but Shanghai Aluminum increased its positions throughout the day, only after opening in the afternoon. At present, the whole situation looks relatively smooth, and the war is expected to end quickly. The short-term market dominated by the incident. But prices fell back quickly, mainly because the market believed that Rusal was less likely to be sanctioned and that most of it could be digested by Chinese allies, so it fell back faster. And there are sufficient expectations in the early stage of the market, the actual performance of the current spot demand fundamentals is general, the performance of demand restrained by high prices is not satisfactory, and the mainstream continues to discount the storage prices of the Yangtze River and the south, and the transaction has improved slightly today, but it is still a discount of more than 20%. The high price suppresses the purchasing demand of the terminal, and the negative feedback is reflected, which is somewhat similar to that in October 2021, the expected speculation of energy and supply shortages led to the delay of demand.
Judging from the current inventory supply and demand, the apparent demand growth rate is expected to be-4.36% year-on-year in February and-3.78% last month, which has gone negative for two consecutive months. On the supply side, the big logic is still tight at the front and loose behind, and the production capacity on the supply side is faster than expected. at present, the operating capacity has reached 38.6 million tons, and it is expected to reach an operating capacity of about 39.4 million tons by the end of April. from the end of the year to about 40.7 million tons (production is concentrated in the first half of the year, so the output will be relatively high, 3960-39.8 million tons). Last year's demand was 40.5 million tons, if the demand growth rate in previous months continues. There will be a surplus this year, not to mention imports. So the core lies in the demand side, the demand side looks at the transaction in the short term, the inventory and in and out of the warehouse, and the variable of long-term demand is in the real estate.
[trading Strategy]
The impact of events is mainly short-term operation, and fast-in and fast-out is the main operation logic; from a fundamental point of view, Rusal's probability of loss in production is small, but the domestic high price suppresses the procurement demand of the terminal. at present, the high price makes the performance-to-price ratio of long is very poor, continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and the pace of accumulation and the evolution of events.
