Russia and Ukraine crisis into Black Swan in Semiconductor Industry? Two key raw materials may face shortage crisis

At present, with escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the United States, Canada and other countries have withdrawn their diplomats and called for citizens in Ukraine to return home. Us Secretary of State Abraham Lincoln says the threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine is great and imminent.

Considering that Ukraine and Russia are major global producers of special gases for semiconductor manufacturing, the White House has previously warned that the chip industry should be prepared for Russia to cut off supplies. Today (February 13), Guojin Securities also released a semiconductor materials industry research report, saying that tensions between Ukraine and Russia and geopolitical risks may affect the supply of semiconductor materials.

According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, 8-inch and 12-inch wafer factories in the United States and Europe are more likely to be affected. Non-related countries and regions, such as mainland China / Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and so on, have the opportunity to benefit from the increase in market share in the short term because of the smooth access to semiconductor gas and materials.

Or affect terminal products such as power management chips and power semiconductors

The materials mentioned by Guojin Securities specifically refer to photoetching and palladium metals.

It is understood that different photoetching gases and voltages can produce light of different wavelengths, and the light source of the lithography machine will be formed after polymerization and filtering, which directly determines the resolution range of the lithography machine.

Most of the lithography gas is a mixture of rare gas and fluorine, and the common photolithography gas includes argon / fluorine / neon mixture, krypton / neon mixture, argon / neon mixture, argon / xenon / neon mixture and so on. the extremely high requirements for matching precision and purity directly lead to the increase of technical difficulty of lithography gas.

Ukraine plays an important role in the lithography market. Data show that Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world's neon and about 40% of krypton and 30% of xenon. Among them, both neon and krypton can be used in KrF laser, which is mainly used in the mature process of 8-inch wafer 250~130nm.

At present, 250~130nm process products include power management chip (PMIC), MEMS (MEMS) and MOSFET components, IGBT and other power semiconductor components. Under the background that the global core shortage has not been alleviated at present, this is bound to further aggravate the core shortage problem.

Another hot discussion material "palladium" is a key material in aerospace, nuclear energy and automobile manufacturing, which is often used in the latter part of the packaging process in semiconductors. Only a few countries in the world, such as Russia and South Africa, produce it. According to Techcet, a US electronic materials market research company, 35 per cent of palladium in the United States comes from Russia.

The United States government has begun to work out a contingency plan.

The agency is not alarmist. Neon prices rose 600 per cent at one point during a period of tension in the Crimean peninsula in 2014, according to the US Trade Commission (ITC). In fact, the prices of some special gases have begun to rise.

According to foreign media, the White House has warned the chip industry to prevent Russia from retaliating against possible US sanctions by restricting the supply of key raw materials. Members of the White House National Security Council have been in contact with people in the chip industry in recent days to learn about the supply of chip-making materials in Russia and Ukraine and urge them to look for other sources.

Joe Pasetti, vice president of global public policy at SEMI, a chip and electronics manufacturing supplier group, has sent an email to members asking to assess the supply risks of important raw materials for chip manufacturing.

Chinese manufacturers have the opportunity to benefit

Guojin semiconductor team analysts believe that if there are related neon, krypton and xenon supply risks, downstream wafer factories looking for alternative suppliers will take more than half a year to verify, will face new short material risks.

According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, 8-inch / 12-inch wafer factories in the United States and Europe are more likely to be affected. Non-related countries and regions, such as mainland China / Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and so on, have the opportunity to benefit from the increase in market share in the short term because of the smooth access to semiconductor gas and materials.

Furthermore, domestic Walt Gas and Camet Gas can supply lithography gas, while Walt Gas supplies Krypton-Neon mixture and F-ne mixture for lithography; Camet Gas supplies related rare gases, such as neon, krypton, xenon and mixed gases, etc., if the supply of Ukrainian neon and krypton gas is blocked, domestic Watt gas and Camet gas are expected to benefit.

Domestic Kangqiang Electronics supplies semiconductor packaging electroplating wire; the upstream high purity palladium suppliers mainly include Guiyan platinum industry, China Gold Environment and other companies, but its products are mainly used in automotive exhaust catalysts, renewable resource materials and so on.