There is no end to development, but there is no end to progress. At the beginning of 2022, China's power battery industry ushered in an "iterative" window. Driven by the launch of new products, Wang Funeng Technology, the route of three-yuan soft package technology, captured a good opportunity.
Under the background that it will take 5 to 10 years for the widely expected solid-state battery to complete production, the semi-solid-state battery can seize the opportunity and realize the iteration of the old technology within 1 to 2 years. The huge potential market for up to 60 million new energy vehicles in the next five years is beckoning to it.
The good news comes that the semi-solid will be in mass production.
688567.SH said in an investor interaction on January 13 that "the company's first-generation semi-solid battery (energy density 330Wh/Kg) has received good feedback to the entire car factory customers." In addition, Mercedes-Benz EQS (configuration | Inquiry) equipped with the company's products has also begun to accept orders in the European market.
In the investor interaction, Funeng Technology said that the company's Zhenjiang first phase production line can be applied to the production of future 330Wh/Kg products after a slight adjustment. In the future, the company will build a production line similar to 285Wh/Kg, which will shorten the time from the beginning of capacity climbing to the target value by at least 30%.
In addition, the energy density of 330Wh/Kg means that it is close to the 400Wh/Kg level of solid-state batteries, higher than the theoretical data of high nickel lithium technology route 280Wh/Kg, and much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate and sodium ion 160Wh/kg-200Wh/kg. This figure means that it is possible for pure trams to have an endurance that exceeds the performance of gasoline cars.
At present, the products produced by Zhenjiang factory mainly supply Mercedes-Benz. Soft package battery has a series of advantages, such as high energy density, good cycle life, stable electrochemical performance and good low temperature performance, so it is generally suitable for medium and high-end new energy vehicles. In addition, the company also has a number of production bases in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province.
From the background, Dr. Wang Wei, chairman of Funeng Technology, is one of the important developers of lithium technology around the world. as early as when he worked for Moli Energy in Vancouver, Canada, he put forward the concept of solid-state battery and proposed two major solutions:
Plan 1: using solid electrolyte to completely solve the charging direction of lithium metal battery, that is, the battery with solid as electrolyte and conductive medium, to improve the battery energy density and ensure safety at the same time. Plan 2: give up using lithium metal as the negative electrode and replace it with graphite as the negative electrode, which is extremely lithium-containing oxide.
However, the production of solid-state batteries still takes time, and the semi-solid-state scheme is not only technically feasible, but also has connectivity, and can be produced using existing equipment. Semi-solid battery is not an excessive product compared with solid-state battery, but a more mature iterative product for ternary lithium battery. According to the information provided by Funeng Technology, there will be three technological upgrades to complete the transition from semi-solid batteries to solid-state power batteries in the next 5 to 10 years.
At present, the first generation of soft package semi-solid battery has been mass-produced in 2021, and the cell has passed the third-party test certification: the introduction of semi-solid gel electrolyte can significantly reduce the battery temperature during the acupuncture process and can pass the 100%SOC piercing test. In addition, the cycle life of the gel semi-solid battery is significantly improved. The gel semi-solid battery circulates 2000 times at room temperature, and the capacity retention rate is more than 85%. Under the same conditions, the ordinary liquid battery cycle 1200 times, the capacity retention rate is only about 80%.
After that, Funeng Technology will launch the second generation of semi-solid battery, which will optimize the solid electrolyte material and electrolyte membrane, the optimized electrolyte membrane has good film-forming property, no obvious thermal shrinkage at 200 ℃, only smoke does not catch fire in case of fire, and can pass the core acupuncture test. at the same time, the battery energy density, high and low temperature, rate performance, cycle life and other performance are not affected.
Then the third generation of soft package semi-solid battery is introduced, and finally the all-solid sulfide electrolyte film / soft package all-solid-state battery is introduced.
Semi-solid battery is not only smaller, but also more stable and safe, both production and use will be safer. In addition, semi-solid batteries can achieve higher energy density, will be cheaper than current lithium batteries, and are easy to recycle and reuse.
Future competitor-Panasonic?
There are strategic alliances and partner priority strategies between power battery enterprises and vehicle manufacturing enterprises. For example, Korean and American Ford, GM and other car companies, Panasonic and Tesla, although the export volume of Chinese power batteries in the international market has made remarkable achievements, but the strategic alliance is weaker than that of Japanese and South Korean enterprises. It is not easy to knock on the door of international mainstream car factories.
Funeng Technology is one of the leaders in the semi-solid technology route, and its main potential competitors in the future are not products such as lithium iron phosphate, but the most likely high-nickel products of Panasonic 4680 specifications and LG new energy.
It is understood that from the perspective of technological development, the Panasonic 4680 battery supported by Tesla may become a product in the future. But the premise is to improve the rate of good products in large-scale production of batteries to a reasonable level. In addition, the domestic giant Ningde Times has been trying to get high-end car customers, they will also produce 4680 specification batteries. After the listing of LG New Energy in South Korea, the production capacity will also be further expanded, and their high-nickel products are currently equipped with a series of large European and American companies such as Porsche.
图：全球主要动力电池产能规划预测数据（来源：中航证券 单位GWh）
Data show that the size of the lithium battery market will continue to double in the next five years, but the risk of inefficient expansion is emerging, and high-performance products are still scarce. By 2025, China will become a major producer of lithium batteries with 2/3 of the world's capacity. Ningde Times and South Korea's LG New Energy will become the largest manufacturers. From the perspective of development, Funeng Technology attaches great importance to basic technology research, and the data show that by 2025, its planned production capacity, industry status and influence will narrow the gap with the leading manufacturers.
图：锂电产能需求和缺口测算（来源：中航证券）
In 2025, before the solid-state battery is commercialized, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach more than 60 million, and the permeability will rise to 21.2%. This huge market is very urgent for technology upgrading.
Pure tram to adapt to urban commuting to intercity commuting is the goal of current efforts. In 2022, a number of products with a theoretical mileage of 1000 kilometers have been launched. The key to the "mileage worry" is the improvement of battery performance. To make the battery lighter, cheaper, shorter charging time, higher safety, better cold and heat resistance, the key to choosing a pure tram is to choose the battery.
Before solid-state technology matures, five years is enough to digest semi-solid technology products. When the semi-solid product has the advantages of both safety and high energy density, its loading advantage is obvious. Especially in the field of medium-and high-grade new energy vehicles with ternary batteries, if the theoretical range can reach 1,000 kilometers and the actual range can guarantee 700 to 800 kilometers, then the current "mileage worry" does not exist. And the ternary technology is more suitable for use in cold areas than lithium iron phosphate technology, and it can achieve the same level of cold resistance without installing a heat pump, which is a performance that northern consumers are very concerned about.
Funeng Technology said that from 2021 to 2023, the company's battery energy density reached 285W / kg and the charging speed increased to 30-40 minutes.
On December 16th, the company and Funeng Zhenjiang, a wholly-owned subsidiary, intend to sign a "Supplementary Agreement of Multi-year supply Agreement (applicable to some projects)" with Mercedes-Benz, which stipulates that Mercedes-Benz will pay an advance payment of approximately RMB 1.05 billion to Funeng Zhenjiang. Funeng Technology said in its 2021 semi-annual report that the Daimler project will begin to supply and achieve sales revenue, which will also bring an increase to the company's performance.
