Shanghai Aluminum fell at night and continued to rise during the day, rising to a three-and-a-half-month high of 22770 yuan / tonne, closing up 2.32 per cent. Tight supply is still one of the main factors driving the rise of aluminum prices, while the overall performance of the demand side is not weak in the off-season, and the cost side also supports aluminum prices under the influence of production restrictions, and the upward trend of aluminum prices continues.
Recently, there has been a lot of good news about aluminum fundamentals. First of all, the impact of the energy problem on the supply of electrolytic aluminum in Europe still exists. Jinrui Futures said that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not yet clear. Although energy prices have fallen from their highest point, the price center has risen. Some aluminum mills have announced that they will not return to normal production until 2023, and overseas supply shortages are expected to be strong.
In addition to the limited supply abroad, the recent epidemic has also affected the domestic supply and transportation of electrolytic aluminum. There is a sudden epidemic in Baise, Guangxi, which is just one of the main producing areas of electrolytic aluminum in China, and its supply will be affected to a certain extent. According to SMM data, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi province is about 2.815 million tons, of which 2.315 million tons are located in Baise, Guangxi, accounting for 82.2% of the total production capacity. In addition, Baise began to close the city yesterday, which will also bring some pressure to the production and transportation of relevant local enterprises.
In addition, alumina production restrictions in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan provinces have made electrolytic aluminum supported by the cost end, SMM said. overall, the production reduction in Shandong fell short of expectations, but the production cuts in Shanxi and Henan were much stronger than expected. In addition to alumina, thermal coal prices strengthened again today, which also boosted aluminum prices.
In addition, the recent demand performance is relatively good. Guotai Junan Futures has learned that most domestic aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises do not stop work during the Spring Festival to provide part of the consumption of aluminum ingots. Electrolytic aluminum warehouse than before the Spring Festival accumulated 140000 tons, Xinhu futures said that after the festival domestic explicit inventory base as scheduled, but did not exceed expectations.
For the late trend, Guotai Junan futures believe that aluminum prices will still maintain a strong concussion trend in the short term, and there is a certain support for strong aluminum prices at home and abroad. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the variables such as the extent of domestic accumulation, the crisis of overseas energy products, domestic environmental protection policy and so on.
