Tesla 4680 battery capacity mystery: when to really mass production?

In the fourth quarter earnings call, Musk said that supply chain problems are still the main production constraints for Tesla in 2022.

Musk predicts that the supply chain may improve later this year, but next year the battery supply may once again become the biggest bottleneck for Tesla to increase production.

As for the high-profile 4680 battery, Musk said the supply this year will not be limited, but the current capacity is unknown.

What is the 4680 battery?

In 2020, Tesla launched the new 4680 battery for the first time, which is a larger new type of cylindrical battery, also known as non-polar ear (or all-polar ear) battery. Tesla expects the battery to surpass the polar ear battery in all directions. that is, the existing 2170 cylindrical battery.

According to Tesla's prospect, the storage capacity of the 4680 battery will be five times that of the 2170 battery, and the power will be as high as six times, which is expected to increase the vehicle mileage by 16% and reduce the cost by 14%.

Compared with the 2170 battery, the performance of the 4680 battery is significantly improved, which can not only improve the space utilization, but also reduce the production cost and improve the fast charging performance.

Since the launch of the 4680 new battery, Tesla has been piloting production at the Fremont plant and is expected to conduct mass production in super factories in Texas and Berlin.

In the fourth quarter earnings call, in response to the question raised by analysts, "when will Tesla with 4680 batteries be on the market?" Musk said:

At our factory in Texas, we are already using 4680 batteries to make Model Y. We will start delivery after the vehicle has passed the final certification, which should be very soon.

Musk also said that in the case of a limited number of batteries, 4680 batteries are reliable enough for vehicles to overcome the challenges of mass production of 4680 batteries.

He said that the main difficulty at present is the positive pole and high squeeze, but it is only a matter of time for the team to solve it and strive for a breakthrough as soon as possible.

4680 the latest production of batteries

Tesla said that the first Tesla car equipped with the new 4680 battery will be the Model Y, and delivery is expected to begin at the end of the first quarter of 2022.

After Tesla released his fourth-quarter results, Drew Baglino, senior vice president of engineering, provided an update on the production of 4680 batteries:

In 2021, we focus on the production of 4680 batteries, there are a small number of pilot 4680 batteries in the Fremont plant, and our goal is to achieve 10GWh capacity.

Baglino said that although he has not yet confirmed the production capacity of the plant, there are other battery suppliers who are also producing 4680 batteries that can be supplied to Tesla.

Baglino expects no restrictions on the 4680 battery supply this year and expects the first delivery of the 4680-battery Model Y by the end of the first quarter of 2022.

In addition, Baglino also mentioned that the Texas plant will be Tesla's first plant to fully produce 4680 batteries, with an annual capacity several times that of the Fremont plant and expected to exceed 100GWh capacity.