The index fluctuated and fell in the afternoon, and the three major indexes turned green across the board. On the market, the digital currency sector rebounded in the afternoon. The banking sector fluctuated and strengthened. Today, only a few plates rose, most of the plates are in a state of decline, the theme plate led the decline. On the whole, today's stocks fell more than rose less, more than 3800 stocks in the two markets fell. Today's turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 1.129 trillion, 63.7 billion higher than that of the previous trading day. On the market, securities, banks, pork, airports, digital currencies, spirits and other sectors rose in the forefront. Salt lake lithium extraction, education, oil and gas, meta-universe, mobile games and other plates led the decline. By the close, the Prev index was down 0.09%, the Shenzhen index was down 0.06%, and the gem index was down 0.32%. Northbound funds bought a net of 12.576 billion yuan today, of which Shanghai shares bought 7.837 billion and Shenzhen stocks bought 4.74 billion.
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Zhongtai Securities believes that the market "inflection point" is close, "offensive and defensive" combination layout "red packet" market. Be optimistic at this point in time. Before the Spring Festival, there may be a wave of "red envelopes" with obvious profit-making effect in the market. Previously, it was stressed that the spring market will be dominated by undervalued blue chips, and will continue to be optimistic about three main lines: green power, securities firms, and central enterprises, which we continue to be optimistic about.
However, in order to deal with the epidemic, the largest "black swan" this year, it is suggested that investors can allocate part of their positions to the above epidemic prevention and control direction (medical supplies, required consumer reserves, and online industry segments). That is, the combination of "undervalued blue chip + epidemic prevention and control" was revised to "both offensive and defensive" in the first quarter, and the joint layout of the "red packet market" before the Spring Festival.
Open source securities said that it is necessary to rationally analyze the central bank press conference and guard against the risk of bond market adjustment. Open source securities believe that the risk of adjustment in the bond market is on the rise. At present, the bond market has come before the central bank, and after the central bank's press conference, the market generally priced the bond market according to at least one OMO or MLF rate cut, or expected the central bank to adopt an unconventional broad currency, which is likely to fail.
From the point of view of factor analysis, almost all the factors are bullish bond market, especially in the stage of "wide currency, wide credit + wide finance", but this stage is not sustainable. According to the urgency of the central bank, it is inferred that the policy level has a high demand for stable growth, and other stable growth policies will be strengthened, which are bad for the bond market.
From the perspective of policy interest rate + spread, the current OMO interest rate is lower than 15bp in 2016, while the 5-year national development and 3-year AA+ are lower than the median of January-October 2016, which is already on the low side.
At present, the only logic supporting the bond market is the shortage of assets, but from the perspective of expectation difference and policy interest rate + spread, it is no longer possible to look at the long bond market, suggesting the risk of bond market adjustment.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that interest rate cuts underpin the economy, focusing on the repair of credit demand and the release of banks' bad risks. Judging from the recently disclosed annual results of KuaiBao, the overall fundamentals of listed banks are stable, their performance continues to improve, and their asset quality is optimized, forming support for the performance of sectors and individual stocks, superimposing the PB0.64 times of the current banking sector, which is located in the 3.2% quantile since 2016, with good allocation value.
Comprehensively considering the impact of interest rate reduction, paying attention to the opportunities brought about by the repair of credit demand and the release of adverse risks under the stable growth policy underpinning the macro-economy, and tracking two main lines: (1) obvious location advantages and strong momentum of asset-end growth; high-quality urban commercial banks and agricultural commercial banks that can effectively pay premium and maintain the leading level of asset quality in the same industry; (2) the banks with high contribution of intermediary business income, leading layout of wealth management and investment banking business, obvious transformation results, and relatively less disturbed by interest rate cuts.
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