SMM Evening Comments (Jan 19): Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Mostly Closed with Gains amid Rising Commodity Prices

Published: Jan 19, 2022 19:00 (GMT+8)

Source: SMM

Save

Shanghai nonferrous metals mostly closed with gains amid rising commodity prices including crude oil. While the first press conference held by the People’s Bank of China in 2022 put forward the theme of “stability” with paramount importance.

SHANGHAI, Jan 19 (SMM) – Shanghai nonferrous metals mostly closed with gains amid rising commodity prices including crude oil. While the first press conference held by the People’s Bank of China in 2022 put forward the theme of “stability” with paramount importance.

Shanghai copper was flat, aluminium rose 1.77%, lead lost 0.77%, zinc gained 1.27%, tin advanced 1.36%, and nickel advanced 0.23%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2203 copper closed up 0.01% or 10 yuan/mt at 70020 yuan/mt, with open interest up 1019 lots to 136183 lots.

On the macro front, the first press conference held by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) in 2022 was quite productive. PBoC made it clear that it will maintain the steady growth of the total amount of money and credit, the steady optimisation of the credit structure, thesteady reduction in the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, as well as the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. PBoC also indicated that RRR still has room of further adjustment, though limited.

In terms of oil, crude prices surged to seven-year high. OPEC believed that the oil market will gain sound support in 2022, which will offer some support to copper prices. Japanese Yen dropped on the central bank’s insistence on ultra-loose monetary policy. US dollar index rose 0.6% in late trading.

Tonight, the market shall watch the ZEW economy climate index in the eurozone in January.

Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE 2202 aluminium closed up 1.77% or 375 yuan/mt to 21530 yuan/mt, with open interest down 10718 lots to 129016 lots.

The fundamentals of aluminium have not changed much recently. The operating aluminium capacity in Yunnan and Shanxi rose slightly, and the total operating capacity was still low. The downstream consumption weakened approaching the Chinese New Year (CNY), resulting in rising inventory.

SMM expects that the aluminium inventory increase during the CNY will be less than in previous years, with an estimated high below 1.2 million mt.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2202 lead closed down 0.77% or 120 yuan/mt at 15510 yuan/mt, with open interest down 3951 lots to 18135 lots.

In spot market, secondary lead smelters were less willing to make shipments amid falling lead prices and high lead-acid battery scrap prices. The spot transactions were sluggish, coupled with tight supply. Primary lead was offered with discounts of 50-100 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead. In the trading market in Zhejiang, the Tongguan, Jijin and Mulun lead was reported between 15,495-15,515 yuan/mt, or in discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt over SHFE 2202. The downstream purchased on dips. Some battery companies and small secondary lead smelters have already closed for CNY holiday.

Zinc: The most-traded SHFE 2202 zinc closed up 1.27% or 310 yuan/mt at 24780 yuan/mt, with open interest down 3688 lots to 48225 lots.

On the fundamentals, the spot prices rose along with rising SFHE zinc prices. The downstream demand was suppressed by high raw materials prices. On the other hand, some traders sold off, resulting in quickly falling intraday premiums. The spot prices in Shanghai were in premiums of around 90 yuan/mt over SFHE 2202 zinc.

Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2202 tin closed up 1.36% or 4270 yuan/mt at 318500 yuan/mt, with open interest down 5648 lots to 38655 lots.

On the fundamentals, the spot supply was stable, and the prices rose slightly. The warrants inventory dropped further. The supply and demand were still weak currently, and are expected to remain so in the short term.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2202 nickel closed up 0.23% or 370 yuan/mt to 163760 yuan/mt, with open interest down 7110 lots to 125036 lots.

On the news front, a power plant was bombed amid political turbulence in Myanmar, while the nickel processing companies nearby were not severely affected, according to SMM research. However, the explosive indecent will definitely upset the market, boosting nickel prices. LME inventory also underpinned nickel prices.

copper aluminium lead zinc tin nickel

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

3 hours ago

Sulphuric Acid Shortage Emerges as a Constraint on Zambia’s Copper Growth

Zambia’s sulphuric acid shortage is becoming a growing constraint on copper production and refining. Jubilee Metals reported acid costs rising by more than 200% in Q4 FY2026, while Sable cathode output fell to 250 t from 361 t in Q3. Government data also showed small-scale copper production down 35.2% YoY in H1 2026, highlighting the sector’s exposure to tight acid availability and higher processing costs.

3 hours ago

4 hours ago

Selkirk Copper Targets H2 2028 Restart of Minto Mine Following Positive PEA

Selkirk Copper Mines has outlined a potential restart of the past-producing Minto copper-gold-silver mine in Yukon, Canada, following the completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) that supports first concentrate production in the second half of 2028. The PEA outlines a 13-year mine life based on combined open-pit and underground mining, with operations designed around an average mining and milling rate of 4,100 mt/day. At peak production, the project is expected to produce approximately 27,200 mt/year of copper-equivalent contained in concentrate, equivalent to around 48,700 mt/year of high-grade copper-gold-silver concentrate. Initial capital required to re-establish production is estimated at C$186 million. Using the study's planning prices of US$5.00/lb copper, US$3,600/oz gold and US$50/oz silver, the PEA estimates an after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of C$494 million, an after-tax IRR of 47.8% and a payback period of approximately 1.9 years from first production. Minto benefits from substantial existing infrastructure from its previous operations, including a 4,100 mt/day processing plant as well as existing open-pit and underground infrastructure. Selkirk Copper said assessments of the site's existing infrastructure and equipment found that the majority remains in good working order and requires only minor attention and refurbishment. The company is targeting first concentrate production in H2 2028, followed by full ramp-up of mining, milling and concentrate production by H1 2029. A feasibility study is scheduled to begin in Q4 2026, while amended permit applications are also expected to be submitted during the fourth quarter. Selkirk Copper said a restart decision is targeted following completion of the feasibility study and receipt of permit amendments in H2 2027. The Minto PEA outlines a potential pathway for a previously producing copper operation to return to the market by 2028, supported by existing processing and mining infrastructure that could reduce the capital and construction requirements compared with a greenfield project. However, the 27,200 mt/year peak production figure represents copper-equivalent contained in concentrate rather than contained copper alone. The restart also remains subject to further feasibility work, permitting and project execution, making progress toward a restart decision in H2 2027 an important milestone to watch.

4 hours ago

5 hours ago

Tschudi Copper Mine Targets Early-2027 Mining Restart in Namibia

Consolidated Copper Corp (CCC) is targeting an early-2027 restart of open-pit mining at the Tschudi copper mine in northern Namibia, with an estimated US$30–40 million of development capital required to bring mining operations back online. Under the planned heap-leach restart, Tschudi is expected to reach run-rate copper cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year over an initial 10-year mine life. CCC expects to complete a definitive feasibility study for the heap-leach mining restart in September 2026, with open-pit mining targeted to recommence in early 2027. The planned restart relates specifically to open-pit mining at Tschudi. Copper processing operations were restarted in 2024 using existing stockpiles, with CCC reporting production of more than 7,600 mt of copper cathode conforming to LME Grade A specifications as of June 2026. Tschudi previously produced approximately 75,000 mt of copper cathode between 2015 and 2020 before being placed on care and maintenance. The operation already has significant processing infrastructure in place, including a 2.88 million mt/year SX/EW plant. According to CCC, the US$30–40 million restart capital would primarily cover dewatering, mining mobilisation and demobilisation, a mobile crushing plant and development of a leach pad. CCC is also studying a larger expansion targeting Tschudi's sulphide resources. The concept includes construction of a 3 million mt/year flotation plant alongside the existing SX/EW operation, potentially increasing average annual production to approximately 30,000 mt of copper-equivalent over more than 10 years. The expansion remains under study and is separate from the planned heap-leach mining restart. The planned restart of open-pit mining at Tschudi could strengthen Namibia's copper supply by supporting run-rate cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year if the project proceeds according to schedule. Existing SX/EW infrastructure and the relatively modest US$30–40 million restart capital requirement could support a faster return to mining compared with a greenfield development. However, the early-2027 restart remains a company target, with completion of the definitive feasibility study and subsequent mine mobilisation among the key milestones to watch.

5 hours ago