The index bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon, but the major indexes were still in a state of decline, and the gem index fell more than 2%. On the disk, the data center plate was strong in the afternoon, the plate rose and stopped, and the game plate remained strong in the afternoon. In terms of decline, lithium electricity and pharmaceutical heavyweights generally fell sharply today. On the whole, individual stocks are up more than falling today, but there are only 200 more rising stocks than falling stocks. Today's turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 1.0653 trillion, a decrease of 130.6 billion compared with the previous trading day. On the disk, cloud games, tourism, data centers, media, building materials and other sectors rose in the forefront. Salt Lake Lithium extraction, CRO, Liquor, National Defense Industry, large Fund holdings and other sectors led the decline. By the close, the Prev index was down 0.33%, the Shenzhen index was down 1.28%, and the gem index was down 2.17%. Northbound funds have a net inflow of 3.821 billion yuan throughout the day, of which Shanghai shares have a net inflow of 2.93 billion and Shenzhen stocks have a net inflow of 891 million.
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Zhongyuan Securities said that the weighted stocks performed in turn, boosting the stock index to stabilize and rebound. The A-share market bottomed out and rose slightly on Tuesday, and the stock index fell quickly in early trading. Sectors such as medicine, the Internet and new energy fell one after another, and the hot spots changed again. With the rotation of heavy stock indexes such as engineering construction, power, banking, wine and real estate, the stock index stabilized and rebounded, and the Prev has rebounded slightly for two consecutive days after breaking through the annual line. In the afternoon Prev was blocked at the 60-day moving average, showing a horizontal concussion. Due to the recent frequent conversion of hot spots leading to gains, poor money-making effect, and a heavy wait-and-see mentality of over-the-counter funds, Prev is more likely to consolidate around the annual line, so it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in policy and capital.
Guotai Junan believes that the reversal of expectations is coming, and the dark moment of coal is over. Looking back on the collapse of coal prices in late October 2021, it is mainly divided into two stages: 1) after the NDRC carried out multiple controls on coal prices led by the "Price Law", coal prices fell sharply and stabilized in early November. This decline mainly hits some traders who are hoarding goods and makes coal prices return to the position that can reflect the fundamentals of supply and demand. 2) the decline that began in mid-December, due to the accumulation of stocks in the peak season, led to market expectations of a glut of coal after the off-season, which occurred in the context of record high coal production in a single month, cold winter and double control of energy consumption.
Guotai Junan judged that the coal price at the end of December was the bottom of the dark hour of the coal market.
After January, Indonesia's restricted imports of coal affected the superimposed NDRC's demand for restocking of power plants in some northern provinces, and coal prices rebounded. With the gradual clarity of supply nodes after the Spring Festival, the coal market is expected to reverse. In addition, the General Secretary proposed that "to achieve carbon peak carbon neutralization, it is impossible to achieve it in one battle", the coal reduction process during the 14th five-year Plan period will be combined with the actual national conditions, reduce the one-size-fits-all phenomenon, it is expected that the "14th five-year Plan" coal demand will still be strong.
Galaxy Securities believes that real estate fundamentals continue to bottom, the first quarter is the best allocation window. In the short-term dimension, the warmer policy promotes the valuation of the real estate industry. At present, it is in the combination of "basic bottom" and "policy bottom", the fundamentals are still on the way to accelerate down, the prosperity is the worst in history, and there is still room for policy games.
Galaxy Securities believes that the first quarter of this year is the best window for allocation. In the medium-and long-term dimension, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the "three good housing enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium.
