Mizuho Securities of Japan: Intel data center chip share will continue to decline

According to (Mizuho Securities) of Mizuho Securities of Japan, mass production of Intel's next-generation Xeon server chip "Sapphire Rapids" may be delayed again, possibly until the third quarter of this year.

Production of Intel's third-generation Xeon server chip "Ice Lake" will grow by 50 per cent this year, the report said. At the same time, in order to maintain its market share, Intel will not raise the price of the Ice Lake. This approach will help prevent AMD from continuing to dominate the data center chip market.

However, Mizuho Securities quoted Dolly Wu, vice president of Wave Systems, as saying that Intel's fourth-generation Xeon chip Sapphire Rapids, originally scheduled for sale in the second quarter, may now be delayed to mass production in the third quarter. Mizuho Securities believes that, Sapphire Rapids material costs have soared, affecting Intel production, and the company's market share of data center chips will continue to decline.

Sapphire Rapids adopts the 7 nm process of "Intel 7" and uses EMIB technology, and the output and delay of (interposer), combined with substrate and intermediate layer are better than outsourced closed test, but the disadvantage is that the cost is high. Although Intel handles most of its packaging operations on its own, there is a shortage of key raw materials, affecting production. As Sapphire Rapids is Intel's first Xeon chip to fully adopt EMIB technology, the price is expected to increase.

Dolly Wu, vice president of Tide Systems, predicts that AMD's third-generation EPYC processor Milan and fourth-generation EPYC Genoa will continue to outperform Intel, helping AMD maintain its explosive growth in the data center.

However, the AMD supply crunch is more serious than Intel, making it impossible for AMD to capture more markets faster. At the same time, TSMC continues to increase production by 7 nm, and AMD's 5 nm Genoa will also be on the market this year, and the battle situation of server chips will become more intense.