Zinc ingot fundamentals are optimistic and zinc prices are expected to remain high next week [selected from SMM Zinc Weekly]

Published: Jan 15, 2022 08:54

Source: SMM

Save

[SMM Zinc Weekly report selection: zinc ingot fundamentals are optimistic and zinc prices are expected to remain high next week] as for Shanghai zinc, continuing the changes in domestic fundamentals mentioned last week, let's continue to take a look at the current situation of smelters. Except for those enterprises that have stopped production due to environmental protection, there are production controls in smelters due to mine pressure, and at the same time, some smelters in Hunan have been overhauled beyond the usual time. China's refined zinc production reached 513300 tons in December and is expected to be 513400 tons in January, a sharp drop from previous expectations.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of the zinc industry chain:

With regard to Shanghai zinc, continuing the changes in domestic fundamentals mentioned last week, let's continue to take a look at the current situation of smelters. Except for those enterprises that have reduced production and stopped production due to environmental protection, there are currently production controls in smelters due to mine pressure. At the same time, some smelters in Hunan have been overhauled beyond the usual time. China's refined zinc output reached 513300 tons in December and is expected to be 513400 tons in January. Compared with the previous expectations, there has been a significant reduction. The result is that the inventory we have seen has not been accumulated for a long time, and we expect it to be about 17,000 to 30,000 tons in the next two weeks. The accumulated stock in the first quarter is expected to be about 10 to 130000 tons, that is to say, next year's inventory peak will be relatively low in recent years. If the consumer returns normally after the new year, then the speed of going to the library is also worth looking forward to. Therefore, on the whole, the current fundamentals of zinc are optimistic. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run at 24200,25500 yuan / ton, and the domestic spot price of Shanghai zinc to 02 contract will rise by 100,000,170 yuan / ton.

"View SMM Metal spot Historical Price

"apply for free access to the SMM metal industry chain database

Catalogue of "SMM Zinc Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this weekly report: processing fees, import profit and loss inventory

Hot spots in the zinc industry: in-depth talk about the causes and consequences of the rebound of the Shanghai-Lun ratio of zinc ingots

Zinc concentrate market: zinc ore processing fees in Sichuan have been reduced month-on-month this week.

Refinery dynamics

Imported zinc market

Zinc market forecast next week: zinc ingot fundamentals are optimistic and zinc prices are expected to remain high

Review of Zinc City

Zinc plating

Die casting zinc alloy

Zinc oxide

[China Zinc Industry chain High-end report] SMM exclusive monthly survey of zinc industry chain report, covering from zinc concentrate to zinc primary consumer operating rate and supply and demand profile. And announce the exclusive monthly zinc concentrate, refined zinc balance, continue to track the industry entity enterprises, update data. And through the supply and demand situation and data model to make a simple prediction of the future trend of zinc. "View details

Weekly report zinc price price forecast output inventory

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

10 hours ago

Fatal accident at Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter involved the roasting-system area; output impact remains to be seen

On Sept 16, a fatal fall took the life of a subcontractor worker during roof work at Plant 2 of Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter in Ulsan, South Korea. The incident occurred on the roof of the condenser room, part of the roasting and sulphuric-acid system at the front end of the zinc flowsheet, while a ventilation fan was being installed. The accident arose from exterior construction work and did not damage the main smelting equipment. However, if the roasting-acid system is taken offline, the zinc roasters cannot sustain normal operation. No production cut, maintenance shutdown or suspension notice has been issued, and investigations are under way. Whether a work-stoppage order will be issued — and how broad its scope would be — and whether the company voluntarily halts the affected system for inspection remain unknown; the output impact is therefore uncertain. As a very rough sensitivity reference based on the smelter's nameplate capacity of roughly 640,000 t/y, a 3-7 day shutdown would imply a volume impact on the order of several thousand tonnes — but this is an order-of-magnitude estimate only, and the actual impact depends on the scope and duration of any inspection-related halt. Coming in a year when several overseas smelters (Nexa's Cajamarquilla, Glencore's Kazzinc and Young Poong's Seokpo) have already been disrupted amid a tight global refined-zinc market, the incident may lend short-term bullish sentiment to zinc, while the actual impact on output requires continued monitoring.

10 hours ago

12 hours ago

Rate Hike Lands, Macro Pressure Persists; China Destocking Supports SHFE Zinc to Rebound from Lows [SMM Zinc Futures Commentary]

[Rate Hike Lands, Macro Pressure Persists; China Destocking Supports SHFE Zinc's Rebound from Lows] In the daytime session, the SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,080 yuan/mt, dipped to 25,970 yuan/mt in early trading, then consolidated and rebounded, reaching a high of 26,335 yuan/mt near the close before settling at 26,280 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.36%. Trading volume increased to 64,810 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,860 lots to 124,000 lots......

12 hours ago

Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 17)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 17 Sep , 2026

12 hours ago