1. Event Review:
(1) the number of non-farm payrolls after the December quarterly adjustment in the United States (10,000): the previous value is 21, expected to be 40, published 19.9; the unemployment rate in December in the United States: 4.20%, expected 4.10%, announced 3.9%, continued to brush the lowest since February 2020; the average hourly wage rose 4.7% year-on-year, is expected to rise 4.2%, and the previous value rose 4.8%; The employment participation rate is 61.9%, and the expected rate is 61.9%. The previous value was revised from 61.8% to 61.9%.
(2) Zhu Guangyao, former vice minister of the Ministry of Finance and former deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group, said that the Fed is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in April, perhaps as early as March, by 0.25% for the first time or by three to four times throughout the year.
(3) researchers at the University of Cyprus suspected to have found a new recombinant coronavirus strain of Delta and Omicron, whose gene is closer to that of Delta strain, but has a large number of unique variants of Omicron strain. Therefore, the strain was named "Delta Tacron (Deltacron)" by the researchers. In addition to causing widespread concern, there are also some controversies about the discovery of the strain.
(4) on Monday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China was 752000 tons, down 49000 tons from last Monday.
two。 Market Review:
On the spot side, the average price of Guangdong Nanzhu aluminum market is 21190 yuan / ton, up 230yuan / ton; the average price of aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River spot market is 21210 yuan / ton, up 190yuan / ton; SMM aluminum spot price is up 60 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton.
Logical point of view: at the macro level, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in December are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink its table many times this year, which suppresses the price of copper to a certain extent. On the other hand, the non-farm data in the United States for December are mixed, in which the number of new non-farmers is much lower than expected, while the unemployment rate has further improved, and the demand for labor on the surface is still strong when hourly wages are higher than expected. against the backdrop of accelerating inflation, the decline in unemployment and the acceleration of wage growth may indicate that it is reasonable to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. In addition, energy prices in Europe have rebounded recently, and the supply of non-ferrous metals in Europe is still expected to tighten, supporting the non-ferrous sector; in terms of fundamentals, the recent social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has continued to go to the warehouse, which has given a certain boost to aluminum prices. Overall, after the macro-level market response to the Fed's liquidity tightening concerns, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in the near future as European aluminum production continues to be disrupted by energy problems and domestic aluminum ingots continue to be destocked.
