Inventory improvement due to supply chain mitigation more than 60% of dealers predict that the car market will be growing in 2022

The epidemic situation is repeated and the chip shortage runs through the whole year, and the domestic automobile market at the end of 2021 presents an unprecedented scene.

The latest analysis report of the China Automobile Circulation Association shows that, judging from the overall situation in 2021, the automobile market recovered smoothly in the first quarter; the chip shortage began to affect automobile supply in the second quarter, and the market trend gradually weakened; the chip problem peaked in the third quarter, and automobile manufacturers significantly reduced production affecting the end market; the "lack of core" alleviated in the fourth quarter, the automobile supply tended to be stable, and the market performance was slightly better than that in the third quarter.

"chips, spare parts, supply chain and other problems are still troubling most car manufacturers and dealers. The inventory of hot-selling models is too low, the supply is insufficient, the target of unsalable models is not reduced, and the price confusion is becoming more and more obvious at the end of 2021, and the living conditions of dealers of different brands are obviously different. " Song Tao, Deputy Secretary-General of China Automobile Circulation Association and Secretary-General of Brand Dealers Branch, said.

Inventory performance "cold and hot uneven"

According to the latest "inventory early warning Index Survey of China Automobile Dealers" released by the China Automobile Circulation Association (VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index)), the inventory early warning index of car dealers in December 2021 was 56.1%, down 4.6% from the same period last year, but up 0.7% from the previous month. Inventory has increased.

"in terms of inventory, dealers will prepare inventory for impulse at the end of the year." Qiu Kai, Industry Coordination Department of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said that of course, it does not rule out the possibility that some manufacturers put pressure on dealers for the wholesale volume for the whole year, "so the dealer inventory showed an increasing trend in December."

However, despite the increase in dealer inventory, the inventory coefficient of the month (inventory factor = ending inventory / current sales) is below 1 for the first time. The latest "Market Pulse" report released by the Automobile Circulation Association shows that under the pressure of year-end task impulse, the industry-wide inventory coefficient was 0.99 in December.

What lowers the overall inventory coefficient of the industry is the uneven performance of each brand at the end of the year. Among luxury brands, the Lexus inventory factor is as low as 0.3. In addition to Lexus, the inventory factor of luxury brands, including BBA, also remained low for all of 2021, at 1.09, 11 percentage points lower than the industry as a whole.

"the 3 Series sells very well, and one can be sold almost every day. If you look at the existing car, you can only look at the car booked by others." A salesperson at a BMW 4S store in Beijing told reporters, "now the discount is even stronger than the peak season in September and October. I couldn't even buy a car some time ago."

Hot sales and insufficient supply of some joint venture brands are also the main reasons for driving down inventory in December. "from the perspective of specific brands, the inventory coefficients of Guangzhou Auto Toyota and FAW Toyota are on the low side this month, which may have an impact on new car sales in January 2022." Song Tao said.

The sales figures partly prove this. According to the data, Toyota sold 1.944 million vehicles in China in 2021, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year, making it the only car company among the three major Japanese brands to maintain positive growth. However, insufficient supply is also one of the factors contributing to the low inventory of Toyota's joint ventures in China.

"one car is hard to get" is alleviating.

On the one hand, the overall inventory is still low, on the other hand, with the approach of the Spring Festival, market terminal prices have begun to loosen.

"now we are rushing the performance at the end of the year, and there is a certain discount on the price. We can still talk about it when we get to the store." A FAW-Volkswagen sales staff told reporters. However, at present, FAW-Volkswagen still has insufficient inventory, and some equipped models need to wait a month or so to get existing cars.

The "Market Pulse" report shows that under the pressure of year-end task impulse, industry-wide GP1 (the ratio of the difference between sales and purchase of dealers to the terminal invoice price, excluding rebates and derivative income) fell nearly one point month-on-month in December. "the month-on-month decline in GP1 reflects a further increase in the cost paid by dealers to increase sales." Song Tao analyzed.

Since last year, the chip shortage has led manufacturers to implement production reduction plans, and some dealers have said that there is a shortage of supply for hot-selling models, and the extended vehicle delivery cycle has led to unstable sales. Coupled with the rising cost of raw materials, manufacturers' promotion policy has been tightened, although the situation that supply exceeds demand, dealers still generally feel great pressure.

According to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions, as of December 19 last year, due to the shortage of automotive chips, global car production has been reduced by 10.272 million, and the global production is expected to be reduced by 11.31 million in 2021. Among them, the Chinese market has reduced production by 1.982 million vehicles, and is expected to reduce production by 2.148 million vehicles for the whole year.

With the relief of the supply of chips and other raw materials, the automobile supply side continues to improve, and the inventory of dealers began to increase.

"when the chip shortage was most serious in the third quarter of last year, the transaction prices of dealers generally rose. By the end of the year, although the chip shortage had not been completely resolved, it had been alleviated and the transaction price had been loosened." Qiu Kai said.

According to a survey conducted by the Circulation Association, 27.6% of dealers believe that new car sales will increase by 5% by 10% in 2022; the proportion of "0 < growth ≤ 5%" is 17.2%; and the proportion of "10% < growth" is 18.7%. Only 36.5% of dealers think the car market will be negative next year.

"the chip impact will gradually weaken in 2022, which will help boost the car market and bring the overall domestic car market back to the normal development track." Qiu Kai predicted.